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Surprise Trump-Backed Gold Reset Slated for July 4? Will It Send Gold to $10,000? Gareth Soloway

Channel: ITM TRADING, INC. Published: 2026-06-24 13:45
ITM TRADING, INC.

Interview-style market discussion focused on the recent pullback in gold, silver, and Bitcoin. Gareth Soloway argues the metals selloff is a technical/emotional unwind after a momentum run, says the rumored July 4 gold reset is unlikely to happen then, and keeps a medium-to-long-term bullish view on precious metals despite near-term downside risk. He also sees Bitcoin weakening toward 50,000, is skeptical the Fed will hike rates, and frames the stronger dollar and AI-capex/tech risk-off move as part of the broader pressure on markets.

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Detailed summary

This episode is a host-led interview with Gareth Soloway centered on the sharp pullback in precious metals and a few related macro/risk-asset trades. Danielle Cambone opens by acknowledging viewer pain in gold and silver and tees up the circulating idea of a July 4 “gold reset” tied to a Judy Shelton-style Treasury trust bond / gold revaluation concept. Soloway says he would “love” for such a reset to happen eventually, but does not think July 4 is the time. His main reason is that price action itself does not look like insider accumulation ahead of a major policy event: if the administration were preparing something that large, he argues, insiders would likely know and gold would be behaving differently. On gold, Soloway’s core thesis is that the metal is undergoing a healthy unwind after a momentum-driven, emotionally crowded run. …

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Main takeaways

  1. Soloway thinks the July 4 gold-reset rumor is interesting but unlikely to be the actual timing.
  2. Gold’s pullback is framed as a technical/sentiment unwind, not a thesis break.
  3. He remains long-term bullish on gold and silver, but wants staggered buying rather than aggression.
  4. Silver may still wash out toward $50 before a durable bottom is in.
  5. He does not think the Fed is on a real hiking path and expects softer growth later this year.
  6. A stronger dollar and cooling AI capex are part of the pressure on risk assets.
  7. He applies the same momentum/mean-reversion logic to SpaceX and Cerebras as he does to metals.
  8. The long-term macro backdrop he cites is fiat debasement, rising debt, and central-bank accumulation.

Market read by horizon

Short term

Near term, the setup is still fragile: gold and silver can keep bleeding if support fails, and the cleaner tactical read is to wait for stabilization rather than chase the bounce. A quick reversal in gold above 4,300 or a decisive rebound in silver would weaken the bearish immediate case.

  • Gold is below $4,000 and still vulnerable to another leg down before a real base forms.
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  • A break back above 4,300 would improve the odds that the 3,900 area was the low.
  • Silver’s next important support is around $54, with $50 treated as the likely psychological flush zone.
Mid term

Over the next few months, the base case is a continuation of the precious-metals correction until speculative excess is flushed out, with better accumulation opportunities closer to the levels Soloway cites. If growth softens and the Fed stays on hold, the longer swing back up in metals should reassert.

  • Over the next several weeks or months, Soloway expects gold and silver to keep working off excess speculation unless a clear breakout invalidates the bearish technical setup.
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  • He wants to see whether the converging trend lines in gold resolve upward or downward within a couple months; that resolution will define the next leg.
  • If silver reaches the 50 area and sentiment washes out, he views that as a better entry zone for long-term accumulation.
Long term

Structurally, Soloway’s view is still constructive on metals because he believes debt growth, fiat debasement, and central-bank accumulation remain intact. In that regime, pullbacks are not thesis breaks but reset points before a larger secular advance.

  • Soloway’s structural thesis remains bullish on gold and silver because he believes fiat currencies continue to depreciate and debt keeps rising.
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  • He sees central-bank accumulation and long-run store-of-value demand as the durable foundation for higher precious-metals prices.
  • He expects gold to make new all-time highs and has floated 10,000 by 2030 or earlier as a long-term possibility.
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Key claims (6)

3:15
BEARISH precious metals correction gold

Gold has further downside to go and could reach the $3,500 area.

The momentum-driven, hype-driven run in gold needs to unwind, and the chart shows support levels being tested with converging trend lines indicating a potential breakdown toward $3,500.

2:00
BEARISH gold revaluation / monetary reset gold

The July 4th gold reset / gold revaluation is unlikely to actually happen on July 4th.

If insiders knew a gold reset was coming on July 4th, they would have been accumulating gold, but the price action shows gold selling off, which contradicts that scenario.

12:05
BEARISH precious metals correction silver

Silver is headed to at least $54 and likely to $50 or even lower, piercing $50.

Silver shows a 'bouncy ball pattern' with diminishing bounces, the next key support is $54 from prior pivots, and psychologically $50 is max pain where speculative investors throw in the towel.

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Assets discussed (5)

Gold — XAU
MIXED commodity

Near-term bearish on the technical unwind, but long-term bullish as a store of value and potential new highs.

Silver — XAG
MIXED commodity

Short-term downside risk toward $50, with long-term accumulation thesis intact.

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Interview (8 Q&A)

1:40
July 4th gold reset

Could a July 4th gold reset actually move the markets or is it just a rumor?

Garrett says he would love for it to happen and thinks it eventually does happen to some extent, but he does not believe July 4th is going to be that time. He points to gold's price action as evidence insiders would know this information and are not accumulating, making it unlikely for July 4th.

4:55
gold correction floor

What are your thoughts on Jim Rogers' theory that no commodity has a parabolic rise without a 50% correction, and that gold may be approaching that floor?

Garrett agrees the theory is absolutely correct, calling Jim Rogers a great mind. He explains that unwinds are healthy and happen in almost all bubbles. He notes that between November and January of 2026, people jumped into gold thinking they could get rich quick, which was a warning sign, and those weak hands need to be flushed out before gold returns to slow and steady upside.

6:15
gold puts

Are massive put positions in gold part of the story of why we're seeing pressure on the gold price?

Garrett says he's reluctant to know if that's specifically a factor, though it could be one of many. He also notes the Iran war appearing to be over removes geopolitical risk, and gold has started acting like the tech sector which is atypical. He adds that put positions could simply be hedging by large long holders, but overall it tells you the market is nervous and likely means we haven't fully reached the bottom yet.

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Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • The “July 4 gold reset” is treated as a fascinating idea, but Soloway offers no concrete evidence it will actually happen then.
  • The claim that the White House leaks information to elites is asserted without direct proof in the transcript.
  • The idea that gold is still in a healthy unwind could be challenged by the possibility that the move is driven by multiple factors beyond weak hands alone.
  • The silver call to 50 rests heavily on technical and psychological framing rather than fresh fundamental valuation evidence.
  • The view that the Fed will not hike and that Warsh will not be truly hawkish is plausible but speculative given no policy decisions have occurred yet.

Topics

gold pullbacksilver correctionJuly 4 gold reset rumorFed rate pathdollar strengthAI capex slowdownBitcoin technicalsspaceX IPO psychologyCerebras IPOcentral-bank gold buying

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