'I'm Mostly In Cash'; Trader Calls Next Drop For Stocks, Bitcoin, Gold | Kevin Steur

This was an interview focused on whether the current market pullback is a normal pause or the start of a deeper correction. Kevin Stewart’s core view is cautious but not outright bearish: he is mostly in cash, thinks the market’s momentum has been damaged, and wants more confirmation before re-entering gold, Bitcoin, or equities. He repeatedly frames the setup as one where risk is elevated in the near term because the macro mix has shifted from last year’s broad, euphoric uptrend to a more uncertain environment with war, possible Fed tightening, and weaker cross-asset technicals. A big part of his thesis comes from his algorithm and chart work. He says the strongest recent signals were in the U.S. dollar and a deflation ETF, while crypto, oil, and agricultural commodities were among the weakest signals. …

1. Kevin Stewart is cautious rather than aggressively bearish: mostly in cash, waiting for cleaner technical confirmation before buying.
2. He sees signs of deflation in his algorithm, led by strength in the dollar and weakness in crypto, oil, and agriculture.
3. Oil is, in his view, likely capped unless the Iran situation escalates materially.
4. He thinks July could be choppy and the current setup could resemble a pause or reset rather than a fresh upside leg.
5. Gold and miners look damaged to him; he wants stabilization and higher highs before re-entering.
6. Bitcoin is oversold but not yet attractive enough on a risk/reward basis; he wants broader tech to bottom first.
7. His trading style is systematic swing trading with journals, stops, and small downside, not options-heavy or buy-and-hold.
8. He believes politics, especially Trump’s actions and the midterm backdrop, are now a meaningful market input.

• The claim that the algorithm’s deflation signals imply real macro deflation is suggestive but not independently demonstrated.
• His view that oil has likely peaked depends heavily on no major Iran escalation; that contingency is acknowledged, but the forecast remains conditional.
• The use of Trump’s stated motives and political strategy is highly speculative and presented without direct evidence.
• The idea that a mixed Congress could slow deficit growth and ease yields is plausible but asserted with limited support.
• The link between Bitcoin’s selloff, quantum computing threats, and MSTR leverage is more cautionary framing than proven causal analysis.
• His implied thesis that gold’s bull market may be failing rests mostly on technical levels and does not fully address possible macro bids for bullion.