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NFA Live! Where the Next Bull Run is Hiding

Channel: Benjamin Cowen Published: 2026-06-25 08:47
Benjamin Cowen

A three-host roundtable (Rob, Ben Cowen, Guy from Coin Bureau) scans for "where the next bull run is hiding." Guy identifies the memory/chip trade — Micron and SanDisk are ripping on hyperscaler AI spend flowing downstream. Ben expects a shallow equities dip in June then rally into Aug/Sept before a larger Q4 drop, at which point the bull market could rotate back into Bitcoin. Both affirm the four-year Bitcoin cycle as still intact and advise against sitting 100% in cash: own assets long-term, buy Bitcoin around end-of-midterm-year. Macro risks flagged include a possible Fed rate-hike split in July, US-Iran tensions, negative real disposable income, and record cash on the sidelines (Buffett, stablecoins).

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Detailed summary

This is an NFA Live episode with host Rob, joined by Benjamin Cowen and Guy (Coin Bureau). The framing question is: "Where is the bull market?" — riffing on Jim Cramer's dictum that there's always a bull market somewhere. **Guy's Core Thesis: The Memory & Chip Trade.** Guy argues the current bull market is *not* in crypto but in downstream semiconductor memory plays. Hyperscalers (the big AI spenders) have been pouring vast sums into the AI buildout, and that money is now flowing to memory and chip makers. He cites Micron's blowout earnings: fiscal Q3 revenue of $41.5 billion vs. $35.5 billion expected; EPS of $25 vs. $20.50 expected; and forward guidance forecasting $50 billion revenue and $31 EPS next quarter. SanDisk is also ripping. Meanwhile, Nvidia and Alphabet are down recently — the rotation is toward the boring, downstream beneficiaries. …

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Main takeaways

  1. The current bull market is in memory/chip stocks (Micron, SanDisk), not crypto — downstream beneficiaries of hyperscaler AI capex.
  2. Bitcoin's four-year cycle remains intact; end-of-midterm-year buying and Q4 post-halving-year selling has outperformed most indicators for three cycles.
  3. Expect a shallow equities correction in June, rally into Aug/Sept, then a larger drop in late 2026 — after which the bull market may rotate back to Bitcoin.
  4. Do not sit 100% in cash waiting for a crash — inflation erodes purchasing power; hold assets with a long time horizon, keep cash as a component.
  5. The macro backdrop is mixed: rising M2 money supply (bullish) vs. potential Fed rate-hike split, negative real disposable income, and geopolitical tensions (bearish).

Market read by horizon

Short term

Tactically cautious: the shallow June equity dip may be behind us and a summer rally into Aug/Sept is the base case, but the July 29 FOMC (potential rate-hike split) and US-Iran tensions create near-term headline risk that could disrupt the seasonal pattern. Bitcoin hovers near the 200-week MA with downside risk to ~$47K if it fails.

  • Equities just had the expected shallow June correction (~5-10%); Ben expects a rally into Aug/Sept based on midterm-year seasonality.
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  • Micron just posted blowout earnings ($41.5B revenue vs. $35.5B expected) with strong forward guidance — the memory/chip trade has immediate momentum.
  • July 29 FOMC meeting could see a split (60/40 or 65/35) leaning toward raising rates, with September looking more hawkish — a near-term risk event.
Mid term

Equities are expected to correct more meaningfully in late 2026 (midterm-year Q4 pattern), which would be the setup for a rotation into Bitcoin. The memory/chip trade has momentum but its durability over months depends on hyperscaler capex sustaining — a key variable to monitor. Rising M2 and sidelined cash (stablecoins, Buffett) provide a bid under risk assets on any pullback.

  • Ben's base case: equities rally through late summer, then get a larger drop in the back half of the midterm year (Q4 2026).
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  • After that equity correction, the bull market could rotate back into Bitcoin — target window is Q4 2026, consistent with prior cycle timing.
  • The memory/chip trade's durability hinges on whether hyperscalers maintain AI capex; any scaling back could halt it abruptly despite the secular demand thesis.
Long term

Structural bullish for hard assets: M2 expansion, persistent inflation erosion of fiat, and secular demand for memory/chips (autonomous vehicles, robotics) create durable tailwinds. Bitcoin's four-year cycle, if it persists, points to the next cycle top in the post-halving year — the signal remains intact but the causal driver (liquidity cycles? halving supply shock?) is assumed rather than proven.

  • The four-year cycle remains the most durable framework for Bitcoin — if it holds again, the next bull-phase top would align with Q4 of the post-halving year.
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  • Memory and chip demand has a structural tailwind beyond AI: autonomous vehicles (5x memory), humanoid robots (~10x), and increasing software content in cars.
  • Inflation is a permanent erosion force on fiat — the long-term case for owning hard assets (Bitcoin, gold, equities) over cash is existential, not tactical.
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Key claims (12)

6:25
BULLISH AI infrastructure / semiconductors

The bull market is currently in memory and chips, particularly Micron and SanDisk, driven by hyperscaler AI spending flowing downstream.

Speaker argues that AI spending by hyperscalers is flowing downstream to memory/chip companies, creating a current bull market there.

9:50
BULLISH Bitcoin

The four-year cycle has been the most reliable indicator for predicting Bitcoin's price action and has not failed so far.

The speaker notes the cycle has worked consistently across multiple cycles and continues to work, and until it's proven wrong, it should be deferred to.

1:50
BEARISH crypto market cycle

There is currently no bull market in crypto and none is anticipated anytime soon.

Speaker directly states crypto is not where the bull market is and he does not anticipate one soon.

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Assets discussed (10)

Bitcoin — BTC
MIXED crypto

Ben thinks crypto may rotate back later in the year, but not now; the cycle remains constructive long term.

Micron — MU
BULLISH stock

Presented as a major beneficiary of AI infrastructure spending and cited with blowout earnings and guidance.

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Interview (15 Q&A)

1:35
bull market

Where is the current bull market, in crypto or elsewhere?

Guy says the bull market is not in crypto right now. He points to memory and chips as the current area of strength, driven by hyperscaler spending and downstream beneficiaries like Micron and SanDisk.

6:45
market rotation

Where does the bull market seem to be right now, and where might it rotate next?

Ben says equities and international markets likely have near-term upside, with a typical midterm-year pattern of a June correction followed by a rally into late summer. He thinks the bull market could rotate back to Bitcoin after a later stock-market correction, likely closer to the fourth quarter.

9:25
four-year cycle

Has the four-year cycle surprised you, given how it's actually kept going and played out to this point?

Ben says the four-year cycle hasn't failed in predicting what Bitcoin will do, so he defers to it until proven wrong. He notes it's one of the best indicators and that simply buying at the end of the midterm year and selling in Q4 of the post-halving year has performed as well as any other indicator. Guy agrees, saying 'this time is different' is the most fatal phrase in investing, and the cycle works until it doesn't.

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Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • The four-year cycle argument relies entirely on three historical instances — this is a small sample and the reasoning is purely pattern-recognition with no causal mechanism articulated beyond 'it keeps working.'
  • Guy's memory/chip bull case leans on one earnings report (Micron) and forward guidance, but forward guidance can be revised; no discussion of competitive dynamics, cyclical semiconductor history, or valuation multiples.
  • The claim that hyperscaler AI spend will continue flowing downstream assumes no digestion pause or ROI scrutiny — both of which are active debates in the AI capex narrative that were not engaged.
  • Ben's midterm-year equity seasonality pattern (June dip, Aug/Sept rally, Q4 drop) is presented as high-confidence but midterm-year sample sizes are limited; no discussion of years where the pattern failed.
  • The dual assertion that 'inflation will eat you alive in cash' and simultaneously 'the Fed might hike rates' is somewhat in tension — rate hikes are disinflationary and would strengthen cash's relative position, yet this tension is not addressed.
  • The 'buy the right assets, not garbage' advice is vague — no framework for distinguishing the two, and no acknowledgment that what looks like 'the right asset' can become 'garbage' (e.g., many 2021 crypto narratives).

Topics

Memory and chip stocks (Micron, SanDisk) as the current bull marketBitcoin four-year cycle analysis and seasonalityMidterm-year equity seasonality and correction patternsCash vs. asset allocation in inflationary environmentFed policy: potential rate-hike split at July FOMCUS-Iran geopolitical tensionsStablecoin balances and Buffett cash as dry powderReal disposable income turning negativeITC Miami conference promotionWorld Cup 2026 and soccer banter

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