Scott Melker interviews Ryan from Bitwise about Bitcoin's recent drop below $60K and a major on-chain bottom signal (record 10.83M BTC supply in loss). Ryan argues the panic is overblown: Strategy's 32 BTC sale is negligible, ETF outflows are normal rotation, and long-term catalysts (stablecoins, tokenization, AI-crypto convergence) remain intact. He expects Bitcoin recovery in H2 2026, sees index funds as the next ETF frontier, and views the fear as a contrarian accumulation opportunity.
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Scott Melker opens with gallows humor — more people are declaring Bitcoin dead on his timeline than ever before — and brings on Ryan from Bitwise, introduced as a fellow "STRC bag holder." The conversation is shaped by Bitcoin having just touched the lowest price since 2024, dipping below $60K, and the emotional fallout that accompanies it. The core thesis from Ryan is straightforward: the long-term Bitcoin thesis remains intact, and the current fear is a cyclical accumulation opportunity, not an existential crisis. He frames the panic around several specific narratives and methodically disassembles each one. On Strategy (MSTR) and STRC: Ryan acknowledges STRC is trading "well below par" but pushes back on the idea that Strategy is collapsing. …
Bearish/neutral — ETF outflows are persistent, traditional finance attention is elsewhere (AI/tech), and no immediate catalyst exists to reverse Bitcoin's range-bound chop near $60K. The supply-in-loss metric is historically a bottom signal, but it can persist before a turn.
Cautiously bullish — Ryan expects a recovery in H2 2026 driven by capital rotation back from AI/tech once crypto price momentum returns. The thesis is plausible but hinges on an unproven assumption that AI outperformance stalls and attention rotates; no specific catalyst is identified beyond "momentum will come back."
Structurally bullish — Bitcoin is on a gold-like multi-decade adoption path; stablecoins, tokenization, and AI-crypto convergence are building real infrastructure regardless of near-term price; index funds will eventually create persistent passive demand through retirement accounts.
Bitcoin's supply-in-loss metric hitting a record high (10.83M BTC) is a bottom signal — previous highs of this metric marked bear market lows.
Ryan references historical precedent: prior peaks in the supply-in-loss metric coincided with bear market bottoms, implying a similar pattern now.
The current ETF outflows are part of a normal capital rotation where investors sell crypto ETFs to raise cash for other opportunities like AI equities, and capital will cycle back into crypto.
Speaker cites conversations with endowments who tapped liquid crypto to raise cash for other opportunities, arguing this is temporary rotation not structural rejection.
Stablecoins and tokenization are the primary drivers of current institutional interest in crypto, not price speculation.
Speaker states that client conversations are overwhelmingly focused on stablecoins and tokenization as positive catalysts.
What do you think about Sailor (STRC) losing its peg and the fear/uncertainty around Strategy's future?
STRC is not a stablecoin or money market fund, and retail investors misunderstand it. While seeing it around 80 isn't ideal, it will likely recover near par once Bitcoin rallies. Strategy collapsing and sending the market to zero is not a realistic scenario — the math doesn't work that way. Even if STRC stays below par for a long time, holders still get paid the dividend on par value.
Could the sale of 32 Bitcoin by Strategy be a sign of trouble?
The amount of concern over a 32 Bitcoin sale is surprising — Strategy bought over a thousand the next week. This sale is actually a good sign, and people will look back on this as silly once Bitcoin recovers to 80-100k+.
Where are we in this crypto cycle given that Bitcoin supply in loss has reached a record high?
These metrics are tricky to track but are the types of signals that indicate where we are in the cycle. Based on historical patterns, we're getting relatively close to seeing signs of a bottom. However, people are emotional and freak out when Bitcoin falls from 65k to 59k. Zooming out, prices are much higher than five years ago and will be much higher five years from now.
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