Mike McGlone argues that the huge run in gold, silver, and broader commodities earlier in 2026 created a better opportunity to sell than buy. His core view is that commodities are now highly correlated with equities, especially the S&P 500, so if stocks correct, commodities should fall too; he therefore favors U.S. long Treasuries as the cleaner trade.
Watch on YouTube ›Get the market thesis, key claims, assets, contradictions, and follow-up questions from any financial video — then unlock a version personalized to your portfolio, watchlist, and favorite speakers.
Mike McGlone’s main thesis is bearish on the commodity complex in 2026 and constructive on U.S. long Treasuries. He says gold’s breakout was real over the long term, but the sharp move higher into early 2026 made it vulnerable to a long consolidation or even a multi-year range, with similar logic extending to silver, copper, crude oil, and the broader Bloomberg commodity basket. The interview is framed around his view that the best time to lighten up on precious metals was January and February, when gold and silver were at or near highs, because “you’re supposed to be selling when they’re yelling.” A big part of his argument is correlation and valuation. McGlone repeatedly says commodities are acting like “sock puppets” to the stock market, claiming the 60-day correlation between gold and the S&P 500 is the highest in his data since 1975. …
Tactically, McGlone thinks commodity longs are crowded and vulnerable; he would rather own long Treasuries than chase metals or energy while equities are stretched. Near-term downside risk rises sharply if the S&P 500 loses momentum.
Over the next few months, he expects commodities to grind into ranges or lower highs rather than restart a clean bull leg, with the stock market acting as the main swing factor. Confirmation for his view would be equity weakness plus softer inflation prints; a sustained equity melt-up would delay the call but not change his skepticism.
His structural view is that the commodity burst marked a major peak inside a broader regime where financial assets, correlations, and supply response now dominate old supercycle narratives. If that regime holds, hard assets may still rally episodically, but they no longer deserve automatic secular-bull status.
US Treasury long bonds will be the best performing asset this year, and yields will fall from 5% back toward 3% as stocks decline.
If stocks fall it is deflationary, pushing yields down; long bonds at 5% offer a buy opportunity as they rally back toward 3%.
Gold's January-to-February highs represented an opportunity of a lifetime to sell, and gold is not the place to be in 2026.
The speaker argues that when the masses jump aboard and correlations spike, it's a sell signal; gold's 60-day correlation with the S&P 500 is at an all-time high, treasuries are bottoming vs gold, and the Fed must focus on price stability.
US Treasuries and long bonds are likely to take alpha from gold in 2026 as they bottom vs gold at the highest level since the early 1980s.
McGlone believes treasuries are bottoming at their cheapest relative to gold in decades, and with the long bond at ~5%, they offer a better risk/reward than gold.
What is your long-term outlook for gold over the next two to five years, and was January to February still an opportunity to sell?
He says gold's long-term trajectory is still ultimately higher, but he thinks it may spend years in a range before that happens. He argues the recent surge and elevated enthusiasm made it a moment to be selling into strength, even though he missed calling the breakout earlier.
At what downside levels would gold become attractive as an entry point?
He points to 4,000 as first support and says 3,500 is a key level, with 3,000 definitely important. He adds that long-term moving averages would likely support prices below 3,000, though those averages are still rising.
What are your thoughts on silver, and is it more of an industrial metal now than a monetary one?
He says silver has changed and is now much more industrial than monetary. He had it on his prudent short list because its upside depended on a stronger stock market, and he sees the recent explosive price move as a sell signal driven by supply-demand extremes.
Unlock the full claims, asset map, scores, related transcripts, follow-up questions, and AI chat — shaped around your portfolio, watchlist, favorite speakers, and risks.
