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Oil Just Hit My Buy Zone (I'm Buying Now): Natural Gas, Silver & Gold

Channel: Gareth Soloway Published: 2026-06-26 06:30
Gareth Soloway

Gareth Soloway presents a technical-analysis-driven update on oil, natural gas, gold, and silver. He has started nibbling on long oil around $69.50, expecting a bounce to ~$80 but warns of a longer-term bear flag targeting $55 (and potentially below $50 in a recession). Natural gas shows a cup-and-handle wedge that could trigger a move to ~$4.30 if it breaks above $3.35. Gold bounced from his $3,900–$4,000 support zone but he doesn't think it has bottomed yet; silver is approaching his $54 accumulation target after a ~60–70% decline from above $100.

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Detailed summary

Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist at Verified Investing, opens with a promotional segment for his courses (40% off, with extra 10% for "Gareth's Top Squad" members) and member-only content before diving into four commodity charts. **Oil: The Core Thesis** Soloway's oil view is two-speed: a near-term bounce trade nested inside a longer-term bearish structure. He notes oil collapsed after US-Iran hostilities eased and is now at a "gap window" support area around $69.50, with a likely gap fill down to ~$67. He has already started "nibbling" a long, using a shotgun/dollar-cost-averaging approach — small buys at current levels, more at $67, more at $65 if it gets there. His bounce target is the prior pivot low around $80, offering 10–15% upside as a swing trade. …

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Main takeaways

  1. Oil: Started nibbling long around $69.50 with a bounce target of ~$80, but longer-term bear flag targets $55 and potentially sub-$50 in a 2027 recession.
  2. Oil buying strategy is a 'shotgun approach' — dollar-cost averaging into support from current levels down to $65, not trying to pick the exact bottom.
  3. Oil fundamentally supported near-term by SPR refilling, still-positive demand, and a turbulent 60-day Iran uranium deal window.
  4. Oil longer-term bearish: full retrace forms a bear flag; AI capex is the 'only thing keeping up the US economy' and cracks are appearing.
  5. Natural gas: cup-and-handle wedge pattern, breakout above ~$3.35 targets ~$4.30, driven by front-running of winter seasonality.
  6. Gold bounced from $3,900–$4,000 support but hasn't bottomed; breakdown targets $3,500–$3,600.
  7. Silver approaching Soloway's $54 accumulation target after ~60–70% decline from $100+ highs.
  8. Soloway repeatedly frames market humility and probabilistic thinking as core to his approach — 'the market doesn't care if I'm long or short.'

Market read by horizon

Short term

Tactically cautious on commodities: oil gets a bounce trade (long into support, $80 target) despite a bearish structural view; natural gas is a wait-for-breakout setup above $3.35; gold and silver are still in downtrends with more downside expected before accumulation. Near-term catalysts are the Iran deal turbulence and front-running of natural gas seasonality.

  • Oil: Soloway is actively buying the $69.50 zone; the immediate tactical play is a bounce to ~$80 (10–15%), with a gap fill at $67 as the next add level. Invalidation risk is a clean break below the gap window support.
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  • Natural gas: the wedge is squeezing; a breakout above ~$3.35 is the immediate trigger for a move to ~$4.30. Until then, it's a watch-and-wait setup.
  • Iran 60-day negotiation window creates headline-driven volatility that Soloway expects to produce tradable oil bounces — 'rage tweeting' and brinkmanship are the near-term catalysts.
Mid term

Bearish tilt: the oil bear flag targets $55 over months, tied to AI capex cracks widening and a slowing economy. Natural gas may get a seasonal pop to $4.30 but institutional distribution is expected into strength. Gold and silver have not bottomed — more downside likely before the real accumulation opportunity arrives. The medium-term path hinges on whether AI spending holds up through late 2026.

  • Oil: after the expected bounce to ~$80, Soloway's base case is a resumption lower. The bear flag structure targets ~$55 over months, with the converging trendline pointing to September/late-2026 timing.
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  • AI capex is the lynchpin: if spending cracks widen in private credit or earnings disappoint, the mid-term path for oil demand (and broader markets) deteriorates. Soloway frames AI spend as a '$1 trillion stimulus' propping up the economy.
  • Natural gas: if the $4.30 target is reached on seasonality front-running, Soloway expects institutional distribution into that strength — a 'flush out' — making mid-term holding tricky beyond the initial breakout.
Long term

Structurally bearish on oil and cyclically patient on precious metals. The AI capex unwind thesis implies recession in 2027, taking oil to $55 or sub-$50. Precious metals eventually become accumulation opportunities at much lower levels ($54 silver, $3,500–$3,600 gold), but the timing is uncertain and dependent on the broader economic downturn materializing.

  • Oil: the structural thesis is bearish — a full retrace of the prior rally plus converging trendlines suggest $55 and, in a real recession (2027), sub-$50. The regime shift is tied to AI capex rolling over and new supply from Iran/Russia.
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  • Gold and silver: Soloway's long-term framework is accumulation at lower levels — $54 for silver, $3,500–$3,600 for gold. He's been patiently waiting through a 60–70% decline in silver, betting on probability over emotion.
  • Recession call: Soloway expects an official recession in 2027 (two quarters of negative GDP), coinciding with an AI capex slowdown. This is the macro anchor for his longer-term commodity bearishness.

Key claims (5)

9:10
BULLISH Natural Gas (UNG)

Natural gas will break out above $3.35 and rally to about $4.30.

A cup-and-handle pattern with a wedge squeezing price; institutional rotation into winter seasonality could drive the move.

7:05
BEARISH Oil (USO)

Oil will eventually break below $67 and fall to around $55 per barrel later this year.

A full retrace of the prior up move forms a bear flag pattern, and convergence of trend line support points to $55.

12:20
BEARISH Gold

Gold has not bottomed yet and will fall to approximately $3,600-$3,500 per ounce.

Gold is bouncing off the 3,900-4,000 level but if that support breaks, it heads to 3,600-3,500.

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Assets discussed (4)

Oil — USO
MIXED commodity

He says oil has collapsed into a buy zone and he has started nibbling long, but he also expects lower prices later and thinks the larger trend remains bearish.

Natural gas — UNNG
BULLISH commodity

He says the chart is becoming more interesting and highlights a breakout setup if price clears $3.35.

Unlock the full asset map (2 more) See all assets mentioned, their directional bias, and the exact reasoning. Unlock asset map

Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • The natural gas thesis is notably thin: Soloway admits 'I don't have a lot on this' regarding fundamentals, relying almost entirely on the chart pattern and a generic seasonality argument. The cup-and-handle pattern itself is described as 'not the prettiest' — weak pattern recognition.
  • The AI capex = $1 trillion stimulus framing is stated as fact but receives no data support in the transcript. No specific figures, earnings reports, or credit market indicators are cited — it's asserted as 'my humble opinion' without evidence.
  • The claim that '75% of Americans already think we're in a recession' is presented as supporting evidence but is unreferenced and likely from consumer sentiment surveys that are not cited. This is a hand-wavy appeal to popular perception.
  • Soloway's recession timing (2027, not 2026) is based on needing 'two quarters of negative GDP' — but this is a definitional technicality, not an economic forecast. He doesn't explain what would cause the GDP contraction to materialize specifically in 2027 rather than sooner or later.
  • The oil supply argument contains tension: he cites Iranian oil coming back online and Russian waivers as bearish, but also says rigs will go offline if prices get too low — without resolving where the equilibrium might be.
  • The 'big money dumping into retail buying' narrative for natural gas is a common cynicism trope presented without any specific evidence of positioning or flow data.

Topics

Crude oil technical analysis and trading strategyOil bear flag and long-term downside targetsIran-US negotiations and geopolitical impact on oilAI capex as economic stimulus and recession riskNatural gas cup-and-handle pattern and seasonalityGold technical levels and support/resistanceSilver accumulation strategy after major declineDollar-cost averaging / shotgun approach to entriesProbabilistic thinking and market humilityStrategic petroleum reserve refilling

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