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Astonishing Silver Deficit: The Silver Just Isn't There | Mani Alkhafaji

Channel: Liberty and Finance Published: 2026-05-12 16:00
Liberty and Finance

Mani Alkhafaji, president of First Majestic Silver, walks through the company's Q1 2026 financial results just released, highlighting over $1B in treasury, margins of ~$52/oz on silver, and a quadrupling of dividend payouts. He frames the silver market as entering year six of a structural supply deficit (~150M oz annual gap) with no new material supply and growing demand from AI data centers, solid-state batteries, and solar. The restart of the Jerritt Canyon gold asset in Nevada is underway, and the company is running a 300km drilling program to extend mine life across its portfolio. The core message: miners are flush with cash, equities still lag the metals, and generalist investors haven't yet priced in the earnings leverage.

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Detailed summary

Mani Alkhafaji, president of First Majestic Silver, joins host Dunigan O'Keeffe on Liberty and Finance the same morning the company released its Q1 2026 financial results — a deliberate timing choice after the operating results a month prior. Alkhafaji frames the quarter around one headline number: over a billion dollars in cash on the balance sheet, calling it "a huge milestone" for a company Keith Neumeyer founded 23 years ago to position a portfolio for exactly this kind of metal-price environment. The margin math is the centerpiece of the bull case. Alkhafaji notes that in Q1 2025, First Majestic's margin above all-in sustaining costs (AISC) was about $13/oz of silver. In Q1 2026, that margin exploded to roughly $52/oz — a fourfold expansion — because metal prices ran far ahead of the modest cost increase. …

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Main takeaways

  1. First Majestic crossed $1B in treasury for the first time, a milestone Alkhafaji attributes to the portfolio built over 23 years for this price environment.
  2. Silver margin above AISC quadrupled YoY from ~$13/oz in Q1 2025 to ~$52/oz in Q1 2026, driven almost entirely by metal price appreciation, not cost reduction.
  3. The structural silver deficit of ~150M oz/year is now in year six with no new material supply, and Alkhafaji frames AI data centers plus solid-state batteries as emerging demand drivers.
  4. Jerritt Canyon restart is underway with a self-mining model and a 7.8M oz gold resource; the roasting facility is a strategic asset — one of only three in Nevada.
  5. Dividend payout nearly quadrupled YoY due to a revenue-linked structure (payout shifted from 1% to 2% of revenue) combined with doubled revenue.
  6. Alkhafaji argues mine-life risk is overstated for underground vein deposits — ongoing exploration (300km drilling program) continually extends reserves.
  7. Mining equities still lag the metals despite 2-3 quarters of strong cash generation; Alkhafaji expects generalist rotation once consistency is proven for another couple of quarters.

Market read by horizon

Short term

Near-term: silver miners are showing cash generation in an elevated metal-price environment, and First Majestic's record quarter could draw attention, but silver's Q1 whipsaw ($67–$120) introduces realized-price uncertainty — the company held back inventory opportunistically, betting on better prices ahead.

  • Q1 2026 financials just dropped — record revenue, $1B+ treasury, and margin expansion to ~$52/oz silver create a near-term catalyst for First Majestic shares as the market digests the numbers.
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  • Silver has been volatile intra-quarter ($67–$120 range), and the company held back some inventory to sell into better prices — a tactical move that could boost Q2 realized prices if silver strengthens near-term.
  • Jerritt Canyon restart is the next operational milestone; eyes are on execution there, and any updates could move the stock given its strategic Nevada roasting facility.
Mid term

Mid-term: Alkhafaji's thesis hinges on another 2–3 quarters of consistent miner profitability to trigger generalist rotation out of tech and into miners. The structural deficit narrative persists, but the catalyst is behavioral — investors need repeated proof, not a single quarter, before re-rating mining equities.

  • Alkhafaji believes miners need 'another couple of quarters' of consistent cash generation before generalist investors rotate in — implying mid-2026 to late-2026 as the window where equity catch-up to metals could accelerate.
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  • The structural silver deficit (150M oz/year) has no supply solution visible over a multi-quarter horizon; demand pressures from AI, solar, EVs, and solid-state batteries are all growing, not shrinking.
  • First Majestic's 300km drilling program across Mexico and Nevada is designed to continuously extend mine life — mid-term success here would validate the 'not a melting ice cube' thesis for investors.
Long term

Long-term: the structural silver deficit of ~150M oz/year, now in year six, implies a durable supply/demand imbalance that higher prices alone may not quickly solve given the decade-plus lead time to build new primary silver mines. If emerging demand from AI infrastructure and solid-state batteries materializes at scale, the deficit widens further, supporting a higher secular price floor.

  • The silver market is in a structural deficit entering year six; Alkhafaji argues no new supply can bridge the 150M oz gap, implying a secular price floor far above historical norms if demand trends persist.
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  • Jerritt Canyon's roasting facility is one of only three in Nevada — the other two are at full capacity for decades — giving First Majestic a long-duration strategic asset in a Tier 1 jurisdiction for gold processing.
  • Underground vein deposits with large land packages (Santa Elena, Los Atos, San Dimas) and sustained exploration spend create a structural argument that mine life is not fixed but extendable, challenging the traditional depletion discount on miners.

Key claims (5)

BULLISH Commodity super-cycle / supply deficit Silver

There is no material new silver supply hitting the market, and the supply deficit for silver has persisted for six years, with nothing to bridge that gap.

The speaker states they know supply and demand, asserts no new material supply is coming, and notes the deficit has run for 6 years with no solution in sight.

BULLISH Mining profitability AG (First Majestic Silver)

First Majestic's all-in sustaining cost margins on silver have expanded from ~$13/oz in Q1 2025 to ~$52/oz in Q1 2026.

The speaker compares margins year-over-year, attributing the expansion to higher silver prices while costs remained controlled.

BULLISH AI / Data center demand Silver

AI data centers will consume astonishing amounts of silver, putting further upward pressure on silver prices.

The speaker references the conversation around AI and data centers and says the metal consumption numbers are astonishing, though no hard data is cited.

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Assets discussed (5)

First Majestic Silver — AG
BULLISH stock

Record Q1 2026 financials: >$1B treasury, silver margin expanded to ~$52/oz from ~$13/oz YoY, dividend nearly 4x higher, all four assets producing, Jerritt Canyon restart underway with 7.8M oz gold resource. Management argues the market hasn't priced in sustained earnings power.

Silver — XAG
BULLISH commodity

Structural supply deficit of ~150M oz/year entering year six; no material new supply hitting the market; growing demand from AI data centers, solid-state batteries (Samsung/Toyota R&D), solar, EVs; market expected to find a new higher price regime.

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Speakers

GUEST Mani Alkhafaji INTERVIEWER Dunagun Kaiser

Interview (4 Q&A)

Q1 2026 headline results

Can you start leading us through what you consider to be the biggest headline items of your operating results and the financial results that followed from that?

First Majestic now has over a billion dollars in the bank, a huge milestone. They are taking advantage of metal prices to build cash, generate significant cash flow, pay dividends, and increase dividends. Production was a pleasant surprise and the financials followed suit.

Jarrett Canyon restart

Can you explain the restart of the Jarrett mine after its shutdown?

Jerritt Canyon is a strategic asset with one of only three roasting facilities in Nevada. When they shut it down gold was at $16,700; now it's around $47-$48,000. The restart plan calls for owner-mining and a new mine plan. They shifted focus to Jerritt after the Gatos transaction completed, and put out an updated resource of 7.8 million ounces at all-time high gold prices.

Silver demand drivers

What are the fundamental drivers that you believe will sustain silver demand and pricing at a new regime rather than just a spike?

Fundamentals have not changed. There's no material new supply hitting the market — this has been the supply-demand issue for 5 years, now entering year six. The last deficit was 150 million ounces, equivalent to 10 First Majestics. New industries like AI/data centers will consume astonishing amounts of metal. EV manufacturers like Samsung and Toyota are investing in solid-state batteries that will consume much more silver. There are fewer companies in the space, putting more pressure on supply and ultimately price.

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Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • Alkhafaji states 'we know for a fact that there's really no material new supplies hitting the market' — this is stated as certainty, but new supply discovery is inherently uncertain and higher prices incentivize both exploration and marginal project restarts globally.
  • The AI/data center silver demand argument is explicitly underdeveloped: Alkhafaji himself says 'there's really no real data out there' and describes some numbers as 'a headscratcher,' yet still cites it as a bullish demand driver. This is speculative and acknowledged as such.
  • The comparison that it would take '10 First Majestics' to close the 150M oz deficit uses one company's output as the unit of measure, but doesn't address whether smaller producers collectively or recycling could narrow the gap incrementally.
  • No discussion of risks: a sustained drop in silver prices back toward AISC levels, operational execution risk at Jerritt Canyon, Mexico jurisdictional risk, or the possibility that AI data center demand estimates are overstated.
  • The host's framing — 'no end in sight' and 'perfect storm' — is promotional and unchallenged; the interview lacks any skeptical questioning about what could go wrong for First Majestic or the silver thesis.

Topics

First Majestic Silver Q1 2026 financial resultsSilver structural supply deficitJerritt Canyon gold mine restartMining margin expansion and metal price leverageAI and data center metal demandSolid-state battery silver consumptionMining equity lag vs metalsDividend structure and shareholder returnsUnderground mine life extension through explorationGeneralist investor rotation into miners

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