Ed Steer argues silver and gold are set up for a major rally because open interest is extremely low, the largest COMEX traders are historically short, and physical inventories keep draining. He says recent war/ceasefire price action was manipulated and counterintuitive, not a normal safe-haven response.
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Ed Steer’s core thesis is that the precious-metals complex — especially silver — is in an unusually bullish setup because paper positioning is stretched to an extreme while physical inventories continue to tighten. He says the eight largest COMEX traders have reduced their silver shorts to the lowest on record, total open interest is at the lowest level since 2012 in silver and since 2009 in gold, and COMEX warehouse stocks continue to drain rapidly. In his view, this combination makes the market “off the wall bullish” and sets up an eventual “moonshot rally” once the bullion banks stop suppressing prices. A major part of his argument is that recent price action around Middle East conflict was the opposite of what a normal safe-haven response would look like. …
Near term, Steer sees silver and gold as vulnerable to another sharp dip from bullion-bank selling, but with the setup primed for a fast squeeze if delivery stress shows up again. The immediate catalyst he cares about is the next positioning report and any fresh signs of COMEX/Shanghai tightness.
Over the next few months, his base case is a choppy but upward-biased metals market as low inventories and structural deficits keep building pressure under futures-market suppression. He would change that view only if the exchange can keep capping prices without any delivery stress or visible inventory strain.
Structurally, he argues the precious-metals market is moving toward a regime where physical scarcity eventually overwhelms paper control. If that happens, COMEX’s role as the main price-setter weakens and Asian price discovery becomes more important.
The US bullion banks and large commercial traders control and suppress precious metals prices through paper market manipulation on the COMEX.
Speaker points to the counterintuitive price action during the Iran conflict and ceasefire as evidence that large commercial traders are suppressing gold and silver to prevent safe-haven buying.
Silver has many years left to run in its bull market and should already be at a three-digit price but is being artificially suppressed.
Speaker asserts that market manipulation by 'powers that be' has prevented silver from reaching its fair price, implying the bull market has years left.
Silver has been in a structural deficit for six years, and the only reason prices do not reflect this is due to paper market manipulation.
Speaker states that supply-demand fundamentals would drive silver much higher if not for price suppression via paper derivatives.
Are you seeing signs that the bullion bank shorting mechanism is running out of physical backing?
He argues the system has been in place since the 1970s and that the paper price is still being managed by the large commercial traders. He also points to ongoing silver structural deficits and notes that the banks have been reducing shorts, but he does not say the mechanism has broken yet.
What is the significance of the London bias in gold price action?
He says the article shows that gold tends to rise in the Far East and fall in the West, especially between the COMEX close in New York and the London open the next day. He presents that pattern as a long-running, obvious sign of price management in the paper market.
What is driving silver’s recent rally to triple digits?
He says the rally was driven first by the eight largest traders cutting their short position by about 40,000 contracts, and then by speculators piling in once momentum built. He frames the move as an attempt by silver to reach its intrinsic value rather than a normal supply-demand response.
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