An interview at the VRIC featuring an unnamed economic expert who argues that China — not Western monetary policy — is the marginal price-setter for gold. He presents a thesis that PBOC liquidity injections have been the primary driver of the gold rally, and that the recent gold pullback coincides with China hitting the brakes on liquidity in March 2026 (linked to Iran tensions). Near-term, he watches 25,000–30,000 yuan as key support zones. Long-term, he projects gold reaching $15,000/oz by the mid-2030s, driven by relentless global monetary debasement as governments inflate away unaffordable debt and welfare commitments.
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This is a conference-floor interview from the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference. The speaker (unnamed in the transcript) is an economist with a strongly stated framework: **China, not the West, drives the gold price**, and understanding gold requires looking at the yuan-denominated price and PBOC liquidity operations, not the dollar. He opens by addressing the dollar first, showing a long-term DXY chart going back to the 1960s with "tram lines" suggesting the dollar remains in a secular uptrend channel. He explicitly says he's "a fan of the dollar" and does not believe we're looking at the end of the dollar — geopolitical configuration is, in his view, actually bullish for the dollar and negative for European currencies. …
Cautious-to-bearish on gold near-term: China's liquidity brake (March 2, 2026) has removed the marginal bid, and the 30,000 yuan level is under test. The immediate catalyst is whether PBOC resumes repo injections — if not, the pullback could extend to 25,000 yuan support (~$3,700). Dollar may strengthen if the Fed tightens from here, adding a headwind for USD gold.
Bullish on gold over weeks/months conditional on China resuming liquidity injections (speaker's base case). The structural bid from Chinese retail and official gold buying resumes once the Iran-related slowdown passes. Dollar strength and gold strength can coexist if yuan gold leads and dollar gold follows — but this tension is underexplored. European fiscal strain adds a secondary tailwind for gold in euro terms.
Structurally bullish on gold toward $15,000/oz by mid-2030s: sovereign debt loads across the West and China make sustained money printing the path of least resistance, driving 8–10% annual monetary debasement. Gold's role as a quasi-official reserve asset in the emerging yuan bloc adds a secular demand floor. Bearish on European currencies as the EU absorbs defense spending without the fiscal capacity to do so smoothly.
China has a huge debt problem and must inflate it away, leading to significant debasement of the Chinese yuan, which is why the gold price is going up.
The speaker presents China's 'great debasement' thesis, showing PBOC liquidity injections and arguing that Chinese monetary debasement is driving gold higher.
China is the marginal pricer of gold in the world economy; the Shanghai market is smaller than COMEX or London but it is the marginal pricer driving gold.
The speaker shows a chart of PBOC cumulative liquidity vs yuan gold price, arguing the correlation shows China drives gold, not the West.
Gold price could reach substantially higher, with mid-2030s estimates of easily $15,000 US per ounce.
Speaker uses back-of-envelope calculations based on ongoing monetary debasement linked to debt/GDP ratios of advanced economies and China.
What happens to gold?
The guest analyzes the US dollar first, showing it remains in an upward channel, then argues Chinese monetary debasement — not Western debasement — has been driving gold higher. China is the marginal pricer of gold, with massive PBOC liquidity injections pushing the gold price up until they hit the brakes in March due to Iran tensions. The guest believes the world is evolving into two monetary spheres: one backed by US treasuries/dollar and one backed by gold/yuan.
Since China is pivoting on liquidity injections, is this why gold is under pressure?
The guest confirms: 'Correct. Correct.' He shows that the yuan gold price has marched up in 5,000 renminbi steps and the break of the 30,000 yuan level is key. He reiterates that China drives the gold market, and that the government buys gold monthly to back the yuan, pointing to an evolution toward a two-sphere monetary system reminiscent of the old Bretton Woods gold exchange standard.
How low could gold go in the near term, and what is your longer-term outlook?
In the short term, the guest sees support around 25,000 yuan (about $3,700 USD) with 30,000 yuan ($4,400 USD) as a key line in the sand to watch, driven by PBOC repo operations. For the long term, he expects gold could reach $15,000/oz by the mid-2030s due to ongoing monetary debasement driven by unaffordable welfare commitments, defense spending, and debt levels. He argues monetary inflation is realistically 8-10%, which would mean gold doubling roughly every 10 years.
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