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What The Stock Market Might Do In April

Channel: Benjamin Cowen Published: 2026-03-30 15:21
Benjamin Cowen

Benjamin Cowen argues the stock market likely stays bearish into the first half of April, may make a low during April, and then stage a counter-trend rally, with the S&P 500 potentially falling a bit more first and then backtesting the bull market support band.

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Detailed summary

The transcript is a short, technical market call focused on the S&P 500’s near-term path. The speaker says it currently makes sense to expect the stock market to remain bearish into the first half of April. In his view, the market likely forms a low sometime in April and then develops into a counter-trend rally. He compares the setup to Bitcoin’s earlier move: Bitcoin broke down, backtested the bull market support band, and then moved lower again. He says the S&P 500 has already wicked back to the bull market support band, but unlike Bitcoin it has not yet produced a durable counter-trend rally. His expectation is for the stock market to drop a little more, likely more than 10%, before bouncing and potentially backtesting that same support band.

Main takeaways

  1. The immediate call is bearish-to-neutral: weakness likely continues into early April.
  2. A potential April low is the key inflection point the speaker expects.
  3. The speaker thinks a counter-trend rally could follow the low, not necessarily a full trend reversal.
  4. He sees the S&P 500 as having already tested support, but not yet shown a durable recovery.
  5. He uses Bitcoin’s prior breakdown/backtest sequence as the analog for the current equity setup.

Market read by horizon

Short term

Near term, the setup is still vulnerable: the speaker expects additional weakness before any tradable bounce, with the main tactical risk being a final flush rather than an immediate recovery.

  • Expect continued downside pressure into the first half of April.
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  • The key tactical risk is another leg down before any bounce forms.
  • He thinks the S&P 500 may fall a bit more, potentially over 10% from the current setup.
Mid term

Over the next few weeks, the base case is a low forming in April and then a counter-trend rally, with follow-through above the support band needed to improve confidence that the worst of the pullback has passed.

  • Over the next several weeks, the base case is a low forming sometime in April followed by a counter-trend rally.
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  • Confirmation would come from a durable bounce rather than a brief wick or shallow rebound.
  • The view would weaken if the market stabilizes earlier than expected or decisively reclaims the support band with follow-through.
Long term

Structurally, the transcript suggests a broader regime where breakdowns may need a backtest and a second leg lower before durable reversals emerge. The long-run implication is about market structure, not a specific April call.

  • The transcript does not establish a deep structural thesis beyond the current bearish phase.
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  • The broader implication is that support-band behavior may continue to govern trend shifts across crypto and equities.
  • If the analogy holds, market regime changes may involve breakdown, backtest, and only then a meaningful reversal, rather than a clean V-shaped recovery.
Unlock the full horizon read See the full short-term, mid-term, and long-term implications with confirmation and invalidation signals. Unlock horizon read

Key claims (5)

0:05
BEARISH equities stock market

The stock market is likely to remain bearish into the first half of April.

Direct statement of expected near-term direction and timing.

0:10
MIXED equities stock market

The market will likely form a low sometime in April before developing into a counter-trend rally.

Explicit scenario forecast with sequencing.

0:30
BEARISH trend behavior Bitcoin

Bitcoin broke down, backtested the bull market support band, and then went down even more.

Historical analogy used to frame the current market setup.

Unlock 2 more claims See the full bullish, bearish, and counter-consensus argument map extracted from the transcript. Unlock all claims

Assets discussed (3)

stock market
BEARISH index

Speaker expects the market to remain bearish into early April and to drop further before a rally.

S&P 500 — SPX
BEARISH index

He says the S&P 500 has wicked back to support but has not yet had a durable counter-trend rally and may fall more before bouncing.

Unlock the full asset map (1 more) See all assets mentioned, their directional bias, and the exact reasoning. Unlock asset map

Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • The call is qualitative and lightly evidenced: it relies heavily on a pattern analogy to Bitcoin rather than a detailed case for equities.
  • The claim that the market will drop 'a little bit more than 10%' is not supported with specific levels or explicit methodology in the transcript.
  • The timing of the April low is asserted, but no catalyst or confirming indicator is provided.

Topics

S&P 500bull market support bandApril market outlookcounter-trend rallyBitcoin analogy

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