Benjamin Cowen says that in midterm years the right default posture is a bearish one, unlike most other years when a bull-market mindset works better. He argues the best time to switch into that mindset is usually the fourth quarter of the post-halving year, and for the next 6–12 months he expects to treat lower lows as likely followed by lower highs, even though he does not think this regime lasts forever.
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This is a very short, thesis-driven market comment centered on Bitcoin cycle behavior around U.S. midterm years. Cowen contrasts two regimes: in most years, traders can lean into a bull-market mentality characterized by higher highs and higher lows; in midterm years, he says it is typically better to adopt a bearish mindset instead. He frames the practical timing of that shift as usually coming in the fourth quarter of the post-halving year, after which one should remain bearish for roughly 6 to 12 months. The operational implication is to assume that rallies may fail and that lower lows may be followed by lower highs, rather than expecting a sustained uptrend. He adds an important qualifier: he does not believe this bearish state persists indefinitely and expects the regime to eventually change. …
Tactically, he is still treating Bitcoin as being in a bearish regime, so upside bounces should be viewed skeptically until the market proves otherwise. The near-term risk is getting caught leaning bullish before the lower-high structure breaks.
Over the next few months, the base case is continued choppy or downward price action if the post-halving/midterm pattern holds. The view would improve only if Bitcoin starts sustaining higher highs and higher lows instead of failing rallies.
Structurally, the clip reinforces a cyclical Bitcoin framework: market behavior changes by phase, and the current phase is bear-like but temporary. The long-run implication is that cycle awareness matters more than simple buy-the-dip thinking.
In midterm years, it is typically best to have a bear-market mindset.
Direct thesis statement contrasting midterm years with other years.
Most other years in the cycle are better approached with a bull-market mindset characterized by higher highs and higher lows.
He explicitly contrasts midterm years with the rest of the cycle.
The best time to pivot into a bear-market mindset is usually the fourth quarter of the post-halving year.
He gives a specific timing rule for shifting regimes.
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