Tom Bradshaw: Gold/Oil Recession Signal Triggered — Price Calls, What's Next

In this interview, Investing News host Charlotte Mloud speaks with independent macro strategist Tom Bradshaw about his commodity-supercycle thesis and his recently triggered gold/oil recession signal. Bradshaw says he has been posting macro and market commentary for about 18 months, mainly on LinkedIn and Substack, and his work focuses on precious metals and commodities because he believes a commodity supercycle began in 2019. The core of the discussion is his indicator built from inflation-adjusted gold and oil prices versus their 12-month averages. He says that when the average of the two is above 22%, history has aligned with severe economic turmoil. He cites 1974, 1979, and 2008 as prior triggers, associating them with the 1973-75 recession, the 1980-82 double-dip recession, and the 2007-09 Great Recession. …

1. Bradshaw’s main warning signal is a gold/oil indicator that has now triggered again, which he says historically preceded severe recessions.
2. He thinks the U.S. is in stagflation now, but the more dangerous phase may be a deflationary recession later this year.
3. Oil is his most tactically volatile view: near-term spike risk from conflict, but also recessionary downside before a much larger secular advance.
4. He prefers direct commodity exposure and specifically mentions USO for WTI oil exposure.
5. Silver may be weak through a recession but he sees a major long-term breakout setup and a possible floor around $48-$50.
6. Gold is viewed as more defensive than silver, but he still expects a liquidation-driven correction before a long-term move toward much higher highs.
7. His long-run thesis is a continuing commodity supercycle, with reflation and supply/demand imbalances supporting higher prices later in the decade.

• The gold/oil recession indicator is presented as highly predictive, but the transcript gives no methodology details, sample size, or out-of-sample validation beyond a few historical episodes.
• Several price targets are extremely ambitious and appear based mainly on chart analogies and cycle comparisons rather than a clear fundamental valuation model.
• The claim that oil can rally to $350 and gold to $9,250 by specific dates relies heavily on technical pattern extension and supercycle framing, which may be fragile if macro conditions change.
• The proposed cause of gold’s recent decline is partly attributed to dollar strength and overvaluation, but the transcript does not quantify how much each factor contributed.
• Bradshaw says oil and silver have an 81% correlation and a “dark dance,” but the explanation remains largely descriptive rather than causal.
• He suggests silver could both be hurt by recession and still remain on a powerful long-term breakout path, which is plausible but somewhat underdeveloped in timing terms.