An interview with Dr. Ivana Nikolic Hughes argues that the risk of nuclear war has risen sharply, especially amid the US-Israel confrontation with Iran, and that existing nuclear doctrines rely on dangerous, irrational assumptions.
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This is a long-form interview focused on nuclear weapons, deterrence, and the current Iran conflict. Dr. Ivana Nikolic Hughes says the probability of nuclear war in the next 12 months is far too high and personally estimates it has risen from roughly 1% per year in the pre-Ukraine era to about 5% after Ukraine, and then to about 25% with the current US-Israel war on Iran. She frames this as a cumulative risk that compounds over time, making continued nuclear brinkmanship increasingly unacceptable. A major part of the conversation is about the unique danger of the current US-Iran-Israel context. She says Donald Trump, as US president, can independently authorize a nuclear strike without other decision makers, and that a strike on Tehran could be carried out by an ICBM or submarine-launched missile in minutes. …
Near term, the setup is dominated by US-Iran escalation risk and the possibility that rhetoric, misread signals, or a leadership decision could trigger an outsized move in geopolitical risk sentiment. The critical tactical issue is whether the ceasefire and diplomacy hold or whether threats of nuclear use keep the situation unstable.
Over the coming weeks and months, the base case is continued high volatility in nuclear-risk headlines unless the US, Iran, and regional actors move back toward a negotiated off-ramp. A sustained de-escalation would require explicit restraint signals and renewed arms-control diplomacy; otherwise the regime stays fragile.
Structurally, the transcript argues that nuclear deterrence is an unstable long-run regime, not a durable safety mechanism. The lasting implication is that major-power arsenals and launch doctrines remain a civilizational tail risk unless disarmament meaningfully advances.
The probability of nuclear war in the next 12 months is far too high, and she personally estimates it at about 25%.
She explicitly states her estimate and explains that risk has risen several fold after Ukraine and again after the US-Iran war.
Trump has the authority to launch a nuclear weapon independently of other decision makers.
She repeatedly says the president can launch on his own authority and gives an example of a strike on Tehran.
A nuclear strike on Tehran could be carried out by missile systems that arrive within minutes and is not a far-fetched scenario.
She says it could be an ICBM or submarine-launched missile and that the scenario is plausible.
Is there a better logic for possessing nuclear weapons than deterrence?
The guest argues the usual deterrence logic is flawed, and says that even if one accepts it, states could adopt a no-first-use policy. They also argue that far fewer weapons would be sufficient if deterrence were the real purpose.
How many nuclear weapons would actually be needed under a deterrence-only logic?
The guest says that if deterrence were truly the only rationale, a much smaller arsenal would make more sense—numbers like 100 or even 10 warheads are mentioned. They add that the current thousands-strong arsenals, especially those of the U.S. and Russia, are far beyond what deterrence would require.
Can the president launch a nuclear strike without being attacked first?
Yes. The guest says the president has the authority to launch nuclear weapons independently, including using a single warhead against Tehran. They then explain that this authority evolved historically after the Hiroshima and Nagasaki decision-making process, without congressional legislation or debate.
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