Jacques Sapir argues that the Iran/Strait of Hormuz disruption has already created a broad oil and gas shock that will hit agriculture, transport, industry, inflation, and debt markets with delays that stretch into late summer and autumn. He says the biggest near-term risk is a physical supply squeeze and a confidence shock to Western economies, while China, Russia, and some supply-secured buyers are comparatively better positioned.
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This interview on Tocsin features Jacques Sapir, introduced as an economist specializing in Russian and international development, and Guide La Fortelle as host/interviewer. Sapir’s core thesis is that the Iran-linked disruption around the Strait of Hormuz is not just an energy-price event but a global physical supply shock. He says around 11 million barrels per day are effectively constrained, enough to remove roughly 15-20% of consumption, and stresses that oil and gas are not only fuels but critical industrial inputs for petrochemicals, metallurgy, fertilizers, electronics, batteries, and aviation. He repeatedly distinguishes between futures/pricing screens and physical markets. …
Near term, the trade is a physical supply shock: fuel, fertilizer, and freight are the immediate pressure points, and the risk is more shortages and spikes than a clean price equilibrium. The most actionable concern is that inventory buffers run out before supply normalizes.
Over the next several weeks to months, the base case is sustained inflationary pressure followed by selective demand destruction in transport, agriculture, and manufacturing. Confirmation would come from worsening harvest/freight data and higher funding stress in energy-sensitive economies; a quick diplomatic reopening would be the main invalidation.
Structurally, Sapir sees this as another step in the breakup of dollar-centered globalization and the rise of secured supply blocs. If that regime shift continues, land-based energy corridors, bilateral resource deals, and China-Russia integration become more important than the old global spot-market model.
The Gulf/Iran crisis has removed or blocked roughly 11 million barrels per day from the market.
He gives a figure for the shortfall and says it represents around 15–20% of global consumption.
The crisis is global because oil and gas are industrial inputs, not just fuels.
He links petroleum and gas shortages to petrochemicals, metallurgy, and other industries.
Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened immediately, supply disruptions would still persist for weeks because ships must be restarted, loaded, and transported.
He argues logistics cannot normalize instantly and damages remain unresolved.
Why are countries like Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam being hit so hard on food production?
He explains that these countries are suffering because their upcoming rice and wheat crops missed the fertilizer window at sowing time. He also notes that poorer countries have less room to absorb soaring input costs, so the shortage is translating quickly into lower agricultural output.
Why are fertilizer prices and U.S. crop choices changing so sharply?
Sapir says fertilizer inputs made from gas or oil, especially urea, have doubled in price, forcing some farmers to stop using them. In the U.S., that means switching from corn to soybeans, which may not directly threaten food supply but will reduce products dependent on corn such as syrups and starch-based industrial uses.
When will consumers in the U.S. and Europe actually feel the inflationary shock?
He says the real inflationary shock will come later, not immediately. In his view, rice effects appear in summer, U.S. effects in early autumn, and European effects in autumn, making the current situation only a pre-shock.
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