Mark Newton argues the violent post-selloff rally is real and should be respected: breadth, momentum, and sector leadership improved, earnings revisions are rising, and the market is likely pricing a near-term geopolitical truce. He stays tactically bullish into summer, but expects a choppy path with a possible 3-5% pullback by May and higher bond yields as a key risk.
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This interview centers on Mark Newton’s quarterly technical outlook. He says his earlier call for a spring correction, a metals pullback, and a bottom in oil played out, and he believes the recent V-shaped rally is supported by improving breadth, momentum, and the rebound in technology. Newton emphasizes that he is a technical analyst first: he does not base decisions on geopolitical judgment or macro narratives, but on price, trend, breadth, and sector behavior. On the market’s recent surge, he says the S&P’s sharp recovery from the lows and the strength across global equity indices argue against a recessionary backdrop. He thinks the rally was partly driven by crude oil backing off from extreme levels and by market expectations that the war could eventually be contained or negotiated around. …
Tactically, the tape still looks constructive despite being stretched, so a brief pullback would be more of a tradeable pause than a trend break unless breadth deteriorates or the 10-year yield pushes materially higher.
Over the next few months, the base case is a choppy but higher equity path, with tech and cyclicals leading if earnings stay firm and rates do not reprice sharply upward. A failure in breadth or a sustained move above the 10-year yield threshold would weaken that view.
Structurally, Newton’s framework says trend and liquidity matter more than headlines, and that the bigger regime risk is eventually higher long rates rather than the war itself. If that proves right, housing and duration-sensitive assets become the long-cycle pressure points.
The recent equity rally is a real technical rebound, not just noise, because breadth and momentum improved before many investors noticed.
He points to more stocks above key moving averages and fewer new lows as early bottoming evidence.
The war and related oil shock helped shape the timing, but the market was already showing bottoming characteristics before the conflict escalated.
He says technical signals started improving in mid-March and oil had already begun to roll over from high levels.
He expects only a modest pullback, roughly 3-5%, into May before the broader uptrend resumes.
He explicitly says the market may be a bit overextended and could retrace part of the recent advance.
How much confidence should investors have in this V-shaped rally?
Mark says he doesn't have analytical data showing concerns are manifesting. He trusts the market - breadth and momentum have improved markedly. He notes the market has made a definitive bottom, though could give back 3-5% of the 12% rally into mid-May. He emphasizes you have to respect the bullish trend until there are proper warnings against it.
How much do you trust this rally?
Mark says he doesn't have analytical data showing concerns are manifesting. He trusts the market - breadth and momentum have improved markedly. He notes the market has made a definitive bottom, though could give back 3-5% of the 12% rally into mid-May. He emphasizes you have to respect the bullish trend until there are proper warnings against it.
Do you have concerns about demand destruction, supply shortages, and food shortages from the war, or is the market saying it won't be that bad?
Mark acknowledges the concerns are legitimate but says he has no way to calculate how they'll affect the economy or earnings. He trusts what the market tells him: earnings revisions are going higher, defense spending is juicing the economy, AI is deflationary. He notes breadth is at its highest level in years and historically when markets rally 3% per week for three weeks, the next 3-6 months are very bullish.
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