Real Vision’s Macro Mondays frames the week around a Middle East escalation risk that the hosts think is increasingly being de-risked by bilateral oil-routing deals and continued flow adjustments. Their core market view is that the immediate oil shock is real but probably manageable, with the U.S. relatively insulated and Europe/Asia more exposed.
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This episode is a two-host Macro Mondays discussion led by Mikkel Rosenvold and Andreas Steno, with a wide-ranging but still market-centered focus on the Iran/Israel/U.S. conflict, the Strait of Hormuz, oil flows, and the implications for inflation, central banks, and relative regional performance. The hosts begin with light banter and housekeeping, then move quickly to the major macro setup: Donald Trump’s escalating deadline language and threats around ‘power plant day’ / ‘bridge day’ in Iran, the movement of the U.S. carrier group, and whether the situation could force a broader market repricing. Andreas argues the market has already started adapting. He says elevated oil prices have triggered creative rerouting and bilateral deals, including a reported Iran–Iraq agreement that he says accounts for roughly 3.5 million barrels per day, plus rerouting via Oman and other workarounds. …
Tactically, the market is still vulnerable to a headline shock from Iran, but the hosts think the marginal oil disruption is being actively softened, so dips may get bought unless escalation actually broadens. The immediate risk is a failed de-escalation or surprise strike sequence that re-prices crude and Europe higher.
Over the next few weeks to months, they expect markets to shift from headline fear to logistics reality: if rerouting and bilateral deals keep adding supply, crude should stabilize and risk assets can recover. The setup improves most if the conflict stays contained and the inflation impulse proves temporary rather than regime-changing.
Structurally, the episode argues that energy and shipping markets are becoming more geopolitically managed and less frictionless, which favors countries and assets with local energy resilience. The U.S. still looks like the cleaner macro regime relative to Europe, while central banks remain structurally limited in how they respond to supply shocks.
The current Iran/Israel/U.S. escalation is increasingly being met by creative oil rerouting and bilateral deals, which are reducing the marginal supply shock.
The hosts cite shipping reroutes, Oman routes, and an Iran-Iraq oil agreement as evidence that flows are adapting.
Roughly two-thirds of the flow lost through the Strait of Hormuz has already been bypassed through other routes or storage releases.
Andreas gives a quantitative estimate for replacement of flows.
The Iran-Iraq deal alone accounts for around 3.5 million barrels a day and is ahead of the speaker’s earlier optimistic replacement schedule.
This is used as a concrete offsetting supply figure.
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