Gareth Soloway argues the market is being lifted by an oil selloff tied to Iran negotiation hopes and, more importantly, a historic semiconductor surge led by Intel's strong earnings. He thinks the S&P and NASDAQ are near key parallel-trend resistance, with the NASDAQ potentially still having room to run into roughly 25,000 before a possible blow-off top fades.
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Gareth Soloway opens by saying he is chief market strategist at verifiedinvesting.com and frames the morning around two immediate drivers: oil falling about $4 on reports that Iran's foreign minister will travel to Islamabad for negotiations, and Intel's earnings beating expectations, which is pushing the NASDAQ and semiconductor stocks higher. He says the oil decline helped lift S&P futures, while the NASDAQ is surging on Intel's results. He then moves into chart-based analysis. On the S&P, he says the market has been respecting a long-running parallel channel that captured the 2021 bull-market high, the 2025 highs, and the decline and rebound since then. He describes the current sideways action as the start of a bull flag, but calls it somewhat immature because it only has about four sideways candles so far. …
Tactically bullish while semis keep extending, but the move is getting crowded and may be very close to a local exhaustion point. The near-term setup is a possible last push toward NASDAQ 25,000 before reversal risk rises.
Over the next few weeks, the base case is continued upside or choppy consolidation as long as semiconductors keep leading, with the key validation being a clean tag or break of the upper NASDAQ parallel. If momentum fades before that level, the blow-off-top thesis gains credibility quickly.
The longer-term message is that the semiconductor complex may be flashing late-cycle excess, where price can overshoot fundamentals for a while before mean reversion. More broadly, the market appears to be tracing a large cyclical channel that has contained major highs and lows since 2020.
Oil fell about $4 in 30 minutes after reports that Iran’s foreign minister will travel to Islamabad for negotiations.
He directly links the oil move to the negotiation headline and frames it as the day’s big news.
The oil decline was positive for equities and helped S&P futures pop.
He says the S&P futures were flat before the oil move and then turned higher.
The S&P is forming an immature bull flag, which could still resolve higher but is slightly more failure-prone than a mature setup.
He explicitly discusses the number of sideways candles and says the setup is still immature.
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