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I TOLD YOU NOT TO LONG... I AM WARNING YOU AGAIN...

Channel: 100XClub Published: 2026-04-02 03:26
100XClub

The speaker argues that Trump’s recent remarks confirm a bullish oil / bearish Bitcoin setup and says prior warnings played out as expected. He remains short Bitcoin, long Brent and WTI, and expects Bitcoin lower toward sub-60k while oil stays bid on Middle East escalation risk.

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Detailed summary

This is a fast, highly opinionated market update centered on the speaker’s view that recent Trump comments about Iran and oil will keep pushing energy higher and risk assets lower. He says he has been warning since the 25th to short Bitcoin, long oil, and ignore headline-driven optimism, and claims yesterday’s video warned that Trump’s announcement would “get you wrecked.” The speaker says Trump’s speech implied the conflict with Iran could last another two to three weeks, with possible strikes on power plants if no deal is reached, and that the US will not import oil from the Strait of Hormuz. On that basis, he argues Brent oil had no good outcome and was likely to rise, especially because Brent is more exposed to European and Asian market pricing. …

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Main takeaways

  1. Core call: long oil, short Bitcoin.
  2. The speaker believes Trump’s Iran-related remarks validate his prior warnings.
  3. He sees Brent as the cleaner oil long versus WTI because of broader global pricing impact.
  4. Bitcoin is framed as a downtrend after a 50% retrace, with a target below 60k.
  5. He thinks there may be a short-term bounce in BTC or SPX, but the larger direction remains his preferred trade.
  6. The weekend / holiday market closure is highlighted as a risk because headlines can move pricing when cash markets are shut.

Market read by horizon

Short term

Near term, this is a headline-risk tape: oil looks supported on geopolitical fears while BTC looks vulnerable to a further flush, with a possible short bounce in both before the next directional move.

  • Immediate setup is headline-driven and highly event-sensitive because markets are closed for Good Friday and then Monday.
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  • He expects crude to remain bid right away, especially Brent, if the Iran / Strait of Hormuz narrative escalates further.
  • Bitcoin could see a brief retrace toward 71k–72k, but he treats that as a tactical bounce rather than a trend change.
Mid term

Over the next several weeks, the speaker expects energy strength to persist if Middle East supply-risk headlines continue, while Bitcoin stays in a lower-high / lower-low structure unless it reclaims the retracement zone decisively.

  • Over the next several weeks, his base case is that oil remains supported as the conflict narrative and supply-risk fears continue.
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  • For Bitcoin, he expects the broader downtrend to persist unless price reclaims the retracement structure and starts holding higher levels.
  • He allows for a short-lived countertrend bounce in BTC or SPX, but thinks those would likely be sold into.
Long term

Structurally, the transcript argues that geopolitical supply shocks can reprice risk assets and re-rank winners, with oil favored and crypto treated as more fragile in conflict-driven regimes.

  • The structural thesis implied here is that geopolitics can dominate cross-asset pricing when Middle East supply risk becomes the market’s main concern.
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  • He is effectively arguing that energy shocks can override normal equity/crypto correlations for a period.
  • Bitcoin is treated as a structurally fragile asset in this regime, while oil benefits from scarcity and disruption risk.
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Key claims (7)

0:45
BEARISH geopolitics Iran

Trump’s remarks imply the conflict will last another two or three weeks and could include strikes on power plants if no deal is reached.

The speaker directly summarizes Trump’s speech and links it to escalation risk.

1:50
BULLISH oil prices Brent oil

Brent oil has no good outcome and should rise because of the geopolitical and supply-risk backdrop.

He explicitly says Brent was going to go up and that there is no good outcome for Brent.

1:55
BULLISH Brent oil

The speaker is currently long Brent oil and WTI oil and says the Brent position is already up about $1,300, or 64% on 10x leverage.

He states his current positions and performance.

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Assets discussed (5)

Bitcoin — BTC
BEARISH crypto

He says he has multiple shorts, expects a downtrend, and targets sub-60k.

Brent oil
BULLISH commodity

He says he is long Brent because geopolitical escalation makes oil go higher.

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Speakers

SPEAKER Unknown speaker

Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • The reasoning relies heavily on the speaker’s interpretation of Trump’s remarks without showing the exact full context or testing alternative readings.
  • The claim that oil had “no good outcome” is asserted rather than demonstrated; the path from rhetoric to sustained price appreciation is not fully substantiated.
  • The BTC call leans on trend language and liquidity buildup, but there is little evidence given for why the 50% retrace should necessarily resolve lower.
  • The speaker cites his own trading performance as validation, but realized/unrealized P&L is not independent evidence that the thesis is correct.
  • The S&P 500 target path is somewhat inconsistent: he says he hopes it goes higher first, but the bearish thesis is the intended end state.

Topics

BitcoinBrent oilWTI oilS&P 500IranTrump announcementStrait of Hormuzheadline riskgeopolitical escalation

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