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BITCOIN IS GOING MUCH LOWER — MY EXACT TRADES (URGENT!!)

Channel: 100XClub Published: 2026-03-20 03:54
100XClub

The speaker argues Bitcoin’s recent bounce is a temporary retrace inside a larger crash, and says he remains short with a bearish bias. He also links the selloff to broader macro stress, while discussing a potential WTI long setup if oil pulls back further.

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Detailed summary

This is a short, highly tactical market update centered on Bitcoin downside, with additional commentary on oil and macro stress. The speaker says he previously called the major crash and believes that view has not changed: Bitcoin is ‘going lower,’ shorts are the appropriate positioning, and the current bounce is just a retracement after a flush. He says one short is still open and up about 14% ($1,000), and another set of shorts/scalps closed with about $1,800 profit. His trading plan is to wait for Bitcoin to retrace into roughly 71,700–72,500, then watch for a 15-minute market structure shift to re-short, with a stop above the 4-hour high near 74,500; he calls 74,500 the local top and 76,000 the ultimate top. The macro framing is bearish and somewhat alarmist. …

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Main takeaways

  1. Bitcoin’s current bounce is framed as a retracement, not a trend reversal.
  2. The speaker remains structurally bearish on BTC and is actively trading shorts.
  3. He uses a 71,700–72,500 retrace zone and 74,500 stop area as his tactical framework.
  4. He believes macro stress, weak housing data, and geopolitical risk are feeding broader risk-off behavior.
  5. He sees quadruple witching as a volatility catalyst that may reinforce downside after the event.
  6. He is selectively constructive on WTI oil if it pulls back further, but not on altcoins.

Market read by horizon

Short term

Near term, the actionable setup is to sell strength in Bitcoin into the 71.7k–72.5k retrace zone, with a stop above 74.5k if the bounce extends. Quadruple witching and session-driven volatility are the main immediate catalysts.

  • BTC is in a tactical bounce after a flush, but he expects another leg lower rather than a durable bottom.
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  • Key near-term setup: wait for a retrace to roughly 71,700–72,500, then look for a 15-minute market structure shift to short.
  • Risk management level: stop above the 4-hour high near 74,500; he calls 74,500 the local top and 76,000 the ultimate top.
Mid term

Over the next several weeks, the base case is that BTC stays under pressure unless it can reclaim the 4-hour breakdown and hold above the recent highs. If that fails, the market may continue lower as macro risk-off and crypto outflows persist.

  • His base case over the next several weeks is continued downside across crypto unless lower-timeframe structure changes materially.
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  • He wants confirmation from lower-timeframe structure before changing the trade plan, implying the current bounce alone is insufficient evidence of a bottom.
  • He links the crypto move to broader macro deterioration, especially weak U.S. housing data and risk aversion.
Long term

Structurally, the speaker is arguing that crypto is entering a broader bear regime rather than a shallow dip. The lasting implication, if correct, is that weak macro conditions and liquidity stress could keep pressuring digital assets while selective energy trades remain relatively attractive.

  • The speaker’s broader thesis is that crypto may be entering a major crash phase rather than a routine correction.
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  • He frames the market as being in a larger risk-off regime, with macro weakness spilling from housing and geopolitics into digital assets.
  • His long-run implication is that altcoins are especially vulnerable and may underperform if the bearish regime persists.
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Key claims (7)

0:05
BEARISH crypto bear market Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s major crash has started and the speaker has not changed his bearish view.

He explicitly says the crash has started, that the view did not change, and that BTC is going lower.

0:10
BULLISH trade performance Bitcoin

One short position is still open and is up about 14%, roughly $1,000.

He states an open short with stated unrealized gain.

4:05
BEARISH market structure Bitcoin

The current bounce is a retracement within a bearish structure, and shorts should be added on strength.

He describes the move as coming back for a retrace and says the job is to follow market structure and short.

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Assets discussed (6)

Bitcoin — BTC
BEARISH crypto

Speaker says the major crash has started, expects lower prices, and is actively shorting BTC.

Total market cap
BEARISH other

He cites a market-structure break in both Bitcoin and the total market cap as confirmation for shorts.

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Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • The claim that the Bitcoin crash has already started is asserted confidently but supported mainly by chart interpretation and sentiment, not by hard evidence that a multi-week downtrend is confirmed.
  • The comparison between today’s housing data and the start of 2008 is rhetorically strong but not well substantiated in the transcript.
  • Statements about ships trapped, running out of food/water, and the Persian Gulf situation appear dramatic and are not sourced within the video.
  • The assertion that Bitcoin is historically muted on quadruple witching day and weak for weeks afterward is presented as a pattern without specifics or evidence shown.
  • The idea that people are ‘simply leaving crypto’ is inferred from realized losses/profit-taking, which may not be sufficient to prove capitulation.

Topics

Bitcoin downside thesismarket structure shortsquadruple witchingmacro risk-offU.S. housing weaknessPersian Gulf geopoliticsoil trade setupWTI vs Brentaltcoin avoidance

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