Marc Touati argues that French inflation is likely to accelerate toward 4% because monthly price increases from spring 2026 onward will mechanically raise the year-over-year comparison, with additional upside risk from oil, commodities, and second-round effects into food and services.
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In this short explainer, Marc Touati walks through the arithmetic behind his inflation forecast. He first clarifies that inflation is measured as the annual change in consumer prices, comparing March 2026 with March 2025, and notes that France is currently around 2% on the Eurostat-harmonized measure. He then shows how a sequence of monthly increases—especially if April 2026 rises 1% versus April 2025’s 0.7%, followed by further positive monthly prints—would push the annual rate higher through simple base effects and rounding. Touati says his projection is intentionally optimistic, using only 0.2% monthly gains from June onward, yet still arriving at roughly 4.1% inflation by November, and potentially 4.3% in France versus 4.1% in the eurozone by year-end under the same assumptions. …
Near term, the setup is inflation-upside risk in France as base effects and still-high Brent prices keep headline CPI vulnerable to another step higher.
Over the next few months, the base case is a gradual climb toward roughly 4% inflation if monthly price gains stay positive and energy remains elevated; a sustained oil retreat would be the main invalidation.
Structurally, the video argues for a regime where energy and commodity shocks can re-ignite inflation through second-round effects, meaning headline price stability may remain fragile even after the initial shock fades.
French inflation could reach about 4.1% by November if monthly price increases remain around 0.2% from June onward.
He walks through the annual base-effect calculation and explicitly says he arrives at 4.1% by November using very optimistic assumptions.
The same calculation suggests eurozone inflation could also reach around 4.1%, and France could be around 4.3% by year-end.
He extends his inflation math from France to the eurozone and gives specific end-year figures.
The initial inflation shock comes from oil prices, but second-round effects should spread into fertilizers, food, hygiene products, transport, and services.
He says oil is only the first impact and specifically lists sectors where he expects pass-through effects.
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