John Feneck argues that the recent selloff in gold and related miners is largely a war-driven unwind, not a broken thesis, and he remains constructive on gold, silver, energy, helium, and tungsten-linked names despite near-term volatility.
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This interview is a market update centered on gold, silver, energy, helium, and select mining special situations. Charlotte Mloud of Investing News interviews John Feneck, a portfolio manager and consultant at Fenic Consulting, first about his upcoming mining conferences and then about the sharp pullback in gold since early March. Feneck frames the move as an unwinding driven by war headlines, margin calls, and leveraged positioning rather than a change in the underlying thesis. He says the market may be basing, but until uncertainty around the Iran war fades, gold remains volatile. He identifies roughly 4,700 as the current area of trade, notes difficulty around 4,800, and sees 5,000 as an attainable psychological level. …
Tactically, gold and the related miners look vulnerable until war headlines cool and leveraged holders finish unwinding; 4,800 is the near resistance to watch and 5,000 is the first obvious upside trigger. Small-cap resource names can still bounce sharply on financing closes or newsflow, but timing remains noisy.
Over the next few months, the base case is for gold to stabilize and eventually recover if geopolitical risk persists without spiraling further, while select silver and strategic-metal names re-rate on project catalysts. Validation would come from improving price action in gold, a calmer war backdrop, and continued execution from the specific juniors he highlighted.
The structural view is that geopolitical fragmentation and supply concentration are making precious metals, energy, and defense-linked materials more strategically important. If that regime persists, domestic-resource projects with tight supply chains and strong permitting positions may continue to outshine crowded large-cap growth leadership.
The recent gold selloff began around March 3 and was driven by war-related leverage unwinding and margin calls rather than a change in the underlying thesis.
Feneck says the March 2 high was the peak, then “seven weeks of pain” followed from war shock and forced selling.
Gold should be able to recover to the $5,000 area and may retest the $5,400–$5,500 highs within 12 months.
He gives explicit support/resistance and a time frame for a return to previous highs.
If the war ends or de-escalates, that would likely be bullish for gold and silver and help the metals rebound from the March lows.
He explicitly links peace/uncertainty resolution with better precious metals prices.
Can you walk me through your reaction to gold's price activity since the Iran war began? Has this been surprising for you?
Fenick says the selloff since March 3rd was driven by margin calls and over-leveraged positions unwinding, not fundamentals. He notes the war created seven weeks of pain, with some leveling off after Trump's ceasefire announcement, but ongoing tensions (Vance meeting, Strait of Hormuz) are prolonging uncertainty. He advises investors to hang in there and check if their stock theses have changed.
Do you have an idea of where gold has support and resistance for the price right now, or is it too tricky to say at this time?
Fenick says gold hit the 4100s briefly in March but quickly rebounded to the 4700 range. He identifies 5000 as the big round number and believes the all-time high of 5400-5500 will be retested within 12 months, implying an 800-point move. He says getting out of war uncertainty would help gold rebound off the March lows.
What will you be watching most closely at the next Fed meeting, keeping in mind the inflation concerns from the war and the Kevin Worsh confirmation?
Fenick says Powell has been pragmatic throughout his tenure, so he doesn't expect any real fireworks at the April meeting. The context is that the transcript chunk cuts off mid-sentence at the start of his answer.
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