Andy Hoese says energy—especially oil—is the best current opportunity, with coal and uranium also attractive, while gold/silver are bullish long term but likely consolidating near term. He expects a broader commodity super cycle to extend into the early 2030s, with higher rates, a weaker dollar, and eventual pressure on the S&P 500 and miners relative to energy.
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This is a one-on-one Investing News interview between host Charlotte Mloud and Andy Hoese, founder of Finding Value Finance. Hoese explains that his investing framework combines technical analysis, market cycles, and relative-value ratios. He says that approach helps him identify when assets are cheap or expensive, whether markets are at tops or bottoms, and how to position for the highest-probability setup. He describes himself as a long-term investor rather than a short-term trader, aiming to buy undervalued assets near cycle lows and hold through multi-year bull markets. His clearest current call is bullishness on energy, especially oil. Hoese argues that oil is deeply cheap relative to gold, mispriced versus the geopolitical backdrop, and likely to benefit from a larger energy crisis tied to Middle East conflict and shrinking inventory buffers. …
Near term, energy looks best positioned: Hoese favors crude and select energy equities while gold/silver may still need to digest recent gains. Volatility is part of the setup, and a further rise in Middle East risk or yields would reinforce the trade.
Over the next few months, the base case is energy leadership with precious metals consolidating before rejoining a broader commodity advance. A sustained break above the yield level he watches would strengthen the rotation away from miners and into energy.
Structurally, he is betting on a multi-year commodity super cycle with persistent scarcity in energy and industrial inputs. In that regime, real assets should outperform broad equities over time, while policy responses like QE would likely weaken the dollar and amplify the trend.
His investing process combines technical analysis, market cycles, and asset-class ratios to identify cheap versus expensive assets.
He explicitly says he uses three paradigms and that the combination gives an unbiased opinion of whether something is cheap or expensive and at a cycle top or bottom.
Oil is one of the most mispriced assets because it is cheap relative to gold and appears to be in a bullish technical structure.
He says oil is cheap on a gold ratio basis and references falling wedges as bullish.
He believes oil could move far higher over the cycle, with a wide possible range and a peak in the early 2030s.
He gives a broad range from roughly $2 to $600 per barrel and says most projections peak in the early 2030s.
Could you outline your approach to investing, which I understand has three key pillars?
Andy uses three paradigms: technical analysis, market cycles, and ratios. Market cycles show overvaluation at tops and undervaluation at bottoms. Ratios show in real time which asset classes are topping or bottoming. Technical analysis reveals actual bottoming or topping patterns. He uses these three together to get an unbiased opinion on whether something is expensive or cheap and whether the market is at a top or bottom.
How did you come to use a combined approach of technical analysis with other factors, since many technical analysts exclude everything else?
Andy identifies as a hybrid investor using both fundamentals and technicals. He believes technicals don't work alone because without identifying whether something is cheap or expensive and what market conditions you're in, your probability of success drops substantially. He's a long-term investor trying to time market bottoms through valuation and technicals, then riding the entire bull market over 10-20 years.
How are you looking at the oil market right now with all the war-related volatility?
Andy is a huge oil bull because oil is very cheap. He shows the gold-to-oil ratio, explaining that oil is at its cheapest ever on a ratio basis. With the energy crisis from the Middle East war and depleting inventory buffers, he believes oil is one of the most mispriced assets and cannot stay at $80-90/barrel given the circumstances.
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