Gareth Soloway argues gold and silver are in a near-term technical correction after a momentum-driven blowoff, but he remains bullish longer term and wants to buy materially lower. He also sees oil easing after its war-driven spike, expects inflation to filter through with a lag, and thinks stretched U.S. equities plus a possible Bitcoin rollover could foreshadow a broader market turn.
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Charlotte Mloud interviews Gareth Soloway of verifiedinvesting.com about gold, silver, the Fed, inflation, oil, equities, and Bitcoin. Soloway says gold’s recent surge from roughly 4,300 to 5,600 looked like a blowoff top, driven by momentum buyers rather than only safe-haven demand, and that the chart now shows a near-term downtrend with possible support around 4,300, then 3,900, and potentially a washout to 3,500 later this year. He remains structurally bullish on gold because of government spending, debt, currency debasement, and de-dollarization, but says he wants to accumulate long-term positions closer to the lows. On silver, Soloway says the move from about 64 to 120 was similarly stretched and that the metal likely follows gold lower. …
Near term, the setup favors caution: gold and silver look vulnerable to another flush, oil appears overextended after the shock, and equities may be vulnerable if the current rally loses momentum. The actionable posture is patience, cash, and selective hedges rather than chasing strength.
Over the next few months, his base case is for a normalization move lower in precious metals and oil, while inflation remains sticky with a lag and U.S. stocks only stay bid if earnings and growth remain intact. A deterioration in those support pillars would validate a broader risk-off turn.
The long-run view is that fiat debasement, large fiscal deficits, and policy credibility issues keep gold in a structural bull market even if there are deep corrections along the way. More broadly, he sees a regime where hard assets matter more as monetary trust erodes and liquidity-driven asset bubbles become more fragile.
Gold’s recent rally looked like a blowoff top and momentum buyers are now leaving the market.
He said the move became a momentum trade rather than a safe-haven trade, which often precedes a flush.
Gold is in a near-term downtrend with lower highs and lower lows, and is likely to revisit 4,300 before potentially breaking toward 3,900.
He explicitly described the pattern and targets from the chart.
Gold could wash out to around 3,500 later this year, which Soloway sees as a long-term buying opportunity.
He set 3,500 as his preferred accumulation zone after a deeper flush.
What are the current support and resistance levels for gold?
Gareth sees gold in a near-term downtrend with lower highs and lower lows after a parabolic blowoff top. He expects gold to come down to 4,300, possibly bounce, then break to 3,900, with a potential washout later this year to around 3,500 — which is where he plans to buy long-term positions.
What would break gold out of its current sideways/downward pattern?
Gareth says the underlying macro factors (government spending, debt, fiat devaluation) remain intact, so the main issue is flushing out momentum buyers who lack staying power. A fear-driven event like a stock market panic could drive gold from 3,900 down to 3,500, at which point the reversion trade would push it back up.
Where are we in the current gold cycle — is this bull market over or is this a typical pullback?
Gareth argues gold bull markets are elongating as the US fiscal state deteriorates. The 1970s bull lasted ~1,200 days (~3 years), the 1999-2011 bull lasted ~4,300 days, and this one could last into 2030 or beyond. He believes the longer-term cycle is intact unless the US miraculously gets its fiscal house in order.
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