The video is a technical market wrap around the FOMC, arguing the Fed stayed hawkish enough to pressure equities while yields, oil, and inflation-sensitive assets moved higher. The speaker uses S&P 500, Nasdaq, small caps, semis, transports, gold, silver, oil, Bitcoin, and several single stocks to frame a broadly bearish near-term setup with a few exceptions.
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Drew Dosek opens with the FOMC and says Jerome Powell sounded somewhat positive on GDP but emphasized sticky inflation, especially amid the recent conflict, and that PCE could remain around 2.7% this year. He says the Fed’s dot plot implied about one cut this year and one next year, but the market’s post-meeting FedWatch-style expectations shifted to no cuts in 2026 and even some small probability of hikes later. He then walks through charts. The S&P 500 closed down 1.4% and, in his view, remained vulnerable because it failed to lose a key prior candle low. The Nasdaq 100 had a “whipsaw Wednesday,” reversed back below a trendline breakout, and looked increasingly bearish toward lower support. IWM also sold off and he said a head-and-shoulders measured move was likely to be hit. He highlights SMH and the Dow Jones Transportation Average as leading indicators. …
Tactically, the tape looks risk-off: failed equity breakouts, firmer yields, and stronger oil leave dips vulnerable unless semis and transports quickly stabilize. Near-term rallies look suspect unless buyers reclaim the broken trendlines and hold them.
Over the next few weeks, the base case is choppy-to-lower equities if inflation stays sticky and the Fed remains on hold. A durable turn would require SMH and DJT to repair their structures and for yields/oil to stop confirming the bearish macro pressure.
The broader regime is one of constrained Fed easing, where inflation and energy shocks limit policy flexibility. In that environment, leadership from semis/transports and the level of real-rate pressure becomes more important than single-day headlines.
Powell sounded somewhat positive on GDP but said inflation remains sticky and PCE could stay around 2.7% this year.
Directly stated in the opening FOMC summary.
The market has shifted from expecting cuts to pricing no rate cut this year after the FOMC.
He says the Fed prediction tool changed after the meeting and no cut is now expected this year.
The S&P 500 closed weak and may head toward lower support near 652.84.
He links the close near the lows with downside continuation and names the next support.
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