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Gold and Silver Crash Warning Before Massive Rally? Shocking Technical Outlook | Chris Vermeulen

Channel: Sprott Money Published: 2026-04-30 14:30
Sprott Money

Chris Vermeulen argues that equities are the current place to be, while gold, silver, and miners are in a volatile corrective phase that needs time to build a new base before the next major rally. He thinks the precious-metals uptrend is still structurally intact, but the near term could remain weak and possibly flush lower before a larger advance.

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Detailed summary

This monthly Sprott Money segment features host Craig Hemke and technical analyst Chris Vermeulen reviewing where capital is flowing at the start of May 2026. Vermeulen says the strongest setup is still equities, especially semiconductors, technology, small caps, and other speculative growth names, because price action and money flows are confirming a strong risk-on move. He argues that markets are being led by technicals and sentiment rather than news, and that the rally could continue to grind higher even amid volatility, with upside targets discussed for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. On precious metals, Vermeulen says the big euphoric rally in gold and silver has ended for now and that the sector is in a correction/downtrend on the short-term and daily/weekly charts. …

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Main takeaways

  1. Equities are the strongest current trade, with semiconductors and tech leading the market.
  2. Gold, silver, and miners are described as correcting and lacking a clean tradable trend right now.
  3. Vermeulen still sees a large longer-term bull case for precious metals, but wants a basing process first.
  4. A shallow consolidation would be bullish for the next metals rally; a deeper flush could delay it and reduce upside speed.
  5. Technical trends and money flows are treated as more important than news headlines in the near term.

Market read by horizon

Short term

Near term, the tape favors equities and especially semis/tech, while gold and silver look vulnerable to more chop or a further flush. The actionable risk is getting caught long metals before a confirmed base forms.

  • Immediate tactical preference is long equities, especially semiconductors and other growth/speculative names.
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  • Precious metals are currently in a weak, choppy phase and are not his favored trade right now.
  • Gold is sitting near a key moving-average support zone around the mid-$4,500 area; a break lower could invite more downside.
Mid term

Over the next few weeks to months, equities likely keep leading unless their momentum rolls over, while precious metals need a stabilization phase before they can reassert leadership. A tighter consolidation in gold would improve the odds of a sharp rebound; a deeper break would prolong the repair.

  • Over the next several weeks to months, Vermeulen expects equities to remain the path of least resistance unless price action breaks down.
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  • For gold and silver, the base case is continued consolidation or drift lower until a new launch pad forms.
  • He wants confirmation of a renewed uptrend before recommending aggressive positioning in metals or miners.
Long term

Structurally, the speaker still sees precious metals as a secular bull market within a broader fiat-debasement backdrop. The long-run implication is that the next major breakout in gold and silver could be very large, but only after the current corrective phase finishes.

  • Vermeulen remains structurally bullish on precious metals and believes the secular trend can eventually produce much higher prices.
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  • He frames current weakness as a normal pause after a euphoric advance, not as a thesis break.
  • If fiat currency devaluation and policy responses intensify in the next downturn, that could reinforce the long-run metals bull case.
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Key claims (8)

BULLISH Risk-on rotation Equities

Equities are the best place to be right now, not precious metals.

Vermeulen says the strongest technicals and money flows are in equities, while metals have taken a backseat.

BULLISH Risk assets Semiconductors

Semiconductors are the strongest technical market among the speaker’s current list.

He identifies semiconductors as the top performer with an explosive rally from the lows.

BEARISH Precious metals correction Gold and silver

Gold and silver are in a short-term downtrend and need to build a new launch pad before the next major rally.

He repeatedly says the metals have completed a euphoric phase and now need time to stabilize.

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Assets discussed (15)

S&P 500 — SPY
BULLISH index

Vermeulen says equities remain the best place to be and projects further upside for the index based on Fibonacci/technical structure.

NASDAQ — QQQ
BULLISH index

He says the NASDAQ is up nearly 10% from entry and can continue higher, with a projected move toward 32,800.

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Interview (5 Q&A)

best asset now

What is the best asset to be in right now based on technical analysis?

The best place to be is long equities, particularly semiconductors which had a 41% move from lows. Money is flowing into speculative stocks, small caps, micro caps, and technology. Precious metals have taken a backseat due to a sharp correction.

equity rally targets

Can you apply Fibonacci analysis to the NASDAQ or S&P 500 to show how far this rally might run?

Using Fibonacci on the weekly chart, the S&P 500 could move up to about 8,500 — roughly a 20% move. The NASDAQ target is about 32,800, also around 20%. The quick pop has already happened, and now the market may grind higher through a wall of worry.

gold secular trend

What does the monthly chart reveal about the secular trend for gold and precious metals?

Gold has had parabolic spikes followed by sharp corrections — normal price action. The euphoric phase where everyone piled into metals has ended. Gold could see several more months of sideways or lower drift. The next leg target based on the super cycle is about $8,600 for gold. Short-term charts point to a potential pullback to $3,500.

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Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • The discussion leans heavily on chart patterns and moving averages, but gives limited evidence for why the specific downside targets should be trusted over the more bullish macro backdrop.
  • The claim that gold could fall to the mid-$3,000s while still remaining in a secular bull market is plausible but not rigorously justified in the conversation.
  • The long-horizon upside targets for gold and silver are extremely large and appear more illustrative than analytically grounded.
  • Several assertions about market structure, AI excitement, and capital rotation are stated confidently without much quantification or supporting data.
  • The view that news is secondary to price action is reasonable for trading, but the transcript does not fully address cases where macro shocks can overwhelm technicals.

Topics

equities leadershipsemiconductorsgold correctionsilver volatilityminerstechnical analysismoving averagesFibonacci targetsmoney flowsfiat devaluation

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