Chris Vermeulen argues that, despite being structurally bearish on the market long term, he is still long U.S. equities because price, momentum, and money flows remain bullish. He sees gold/silver as range-bound to weak, Bitcoin as bearish, and oil/energy as volatile but tradable via energy equities rather than futures.
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This is an interview on David Lin with Chris Vermeulen, chief market strategist at TheTechnicalTraders.com, focused on earnings season, equity momentum, gold, Bitcoin, oil, and real estate. Vermeulen says he is a long-term bear and expects a major correction that could devastate investors, but he does not bet against the current trend. His process is driven by price, momentum, sentiment, and money flows, not news or fundamental headlines. Because equities remain in an uptrend and money is flowing there, he says he is long the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, with targets close to being hit on QQQ and a leveraged equity strategy. He treats earnings season as a volatility event rather than a change in thesis: good news can still be sold, bad news can be absorbed, and the market often behaves as “buy the rumor, sell the news.” He says the current rally is strong but may be getting a little exhausted, …
Near term, the setup is still constructive for U.S. equities, but the trade is getting extended and may need a pause or pullback after strong earnings and heavy profit-taking. Gold, Bitcoin, and oil are more tactical than attractive here, with headline-driven volatility the main risk.
Over the next few weeks and months, the base case is that equities remain the relative winner unless price/money flows roll over. Confirmation would come from continued strength in the S&P 500/NASDAQ and a fresh signal after any consolidation; invalidation would be a sustained break in trend and weak breadth.
Structurally, he is still warning that a major correction remains the larger risk even if the market keeps grinding higher first. The long-run regime call is that trend-following beats narrative trading, and that leveraged futures and dead-money assets can destroy capital when the market regime shifts.
Vermeulen is long-term bearish and expects a major market correction that could devastate most investors.
He opens by stating he is bearish long term and believes a huge market correction is coming.
He is still long the S&P 500 and NASDAQ because equities are the best-performing asset class right now.
He says the equity market stands out and that he remains long those indices.
Earnings season increases volatility but does not change his trend-following strategy.
He says he trades price and momentum, not fundamentals, and continues normally through earnings.
How do you navigate earnings season given the volatility and unpredictability if you're not following the fundamentals of every single big stock?
Chris says he follows price, momentum, money flows, and sentiment rather than fundamentals and news. Earnings season increases volatility and risk, but he continues to trade as normal since the market sticks with its underlying trend. He notes that with good earnings news, we often see 'buy the rumor, sell the news' behavior, which is what happened with the NASDAQ falling 1.2% quickly on heavy volume this morning as people locked in profits.
Are you still long equities today, as you were two weeks ago?
Yes, Chris confirms they are long the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. They have a position in QQQ that is very close to hitting a key target at a 10% gain, and their band strategy trades the 2x which is up about 20%. He believes equities are the only asset class standing out and that you need to be long equities.
If nothing changes in the world — Iran war continues then ceasefire, Fed holds rates, economy grows slowly — would you change your outlook on a market correction that could devastate investors, or could it never happen?
Chris says it's possible the market proves resilient and kicks into a strong bull market, but he still sees a correction coming. Ultimately, he says he just follows price regardless of the macro stage — if the market proves otherwise he could turn bullish someday.
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