A gold-focused interview argues that gold is in a new regime: central bank buying, ETF inflows, and de-dollarization are overpowering the old inverse relationship with the dollar and real yields. The guest also pitches One Bullion as a Botswana-based explorer with upcoming drilling catalysts and strong cash liquidity.
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This is an interview on Commodity Culture between host Jesse Day and Adam Burke, CEO of One Bullion, focused primarily on the gold market and then on One Bullion’s Botswana exploration portfolio. Burke’s central thesis is that gold is in an exceptional bull market and is likely to make new all-time highs in 2026, driven by three structural forces: persistent central bank buying, rising ETF demand, and a de-dollarization trend that redirects reserve assets into gold. …
Near term, gold remains tactically volatile: oil/inflation headlines and higher bond yields can cap momentum, even as geopolitical uncertainty keeps buyers engaged. The most actionable catalyst is whether the market starts leaning from inflation shock back toward growth fear, which would help gold.
Over the next several weeks to months, the base case is continued strength in gold with periodic pullbacks, driven by central bank demand and ETF inflows. The setup improves if miners start rerating off higher gold prices and if One Bullion’s assay/geophysics/drilling sequence confirms the Vumba target.
Structurally, the interview argues that gold has moved into a reserve-asset/fiscal-hedge regime rather than a simple real-yield trade. If that remains true, the long-duration winners are likely to be high-quality producers and disciplined explorers in stable jurisdictions, with Botswana presented as one such venue.
Gold has already made a major all-time high above $5,500/oz and remains in a powerful bull market despite a pullback.
Burke cites a January record high and says the metal is still up roughly 40% year-over-year.
Central-bank buying is one of the main structural drivers of gold and is not just a cyclical institutional trade.
He argues official-sector buying is a strategic reallocation away from dollar reserves.
Gold ETF inflows are rising and should continue through the back half of 2026.
He points to record ETF assets and sustained inflows as a demand source.
What are the main catalysts and challenges currently driving the gold market, and can gold reach new all-time highs this year?
Burke says gold is in an extraordinary environment, driven mainly by central bank buying, ETF inflows, and de-dollarization. He also says geopolitical uncertainty and the Iran conflict are adding complexity, but he expects new highs this year and cites bullish bank forecasts above current levels.
How correlated is gold still with the US dollar and real yields, and are rising bond yields a headwind?
He argues the old inverse relationship between gold and the dollar or real yields has weakened materially. In his view gold is now acting more like a fiscal hedge, though elevated bond yields can still pressure short-term momentum.
How could the Iran conflict affect precious metals prices, especially if it drags on?
He says the conflict is unusual because the Strait of Hormuz risk has driven oil and inflation sharply higher, which can pressure gold despite the conflict backdrop. If it drags on and growth slows, he expects gold to decouple from inflation headwinds and potentially rise another 15% to 30%.
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