Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

This is a solo market update centered on Bitcoin and cycle/seasonality comparisons, especially 2018, 2014, 2019, and 2022. Cowen says Bitcoin is trading around $78,000 and frames the current move as a counter-trend rally inside a broader midterm downtrend. He reiterates that Q4 2025 was the time to sell, says he is not trying to trade every bounce, and argues that the April low behaving as a higher low does not invalidate the bearish cycle thesis. The core of the video is a repeated comparison of current Bitcoin price action to prior midterm-year patterns. Cowen emphasizes that early February and early April have already acted as weakness windows, and he expects the next significant low to come in June, with October as the next fallback if June does not mark the low. …

1. Cowen’s base case is still bearish for Bitcoin over the midterm, despite the current rally.
2. He thinks the cycle is behaving more like 2018 than a new bull regime.
3. The next major weakness window is his June call, with October as the backup.
4. A reclaim of the 50-week moving average would force him to reassess the bear-market view.
5. He frames Q4 2025 as the correct time to sell, not the current pullback zone.

• The argument leans heavily on pattern matching across prior cycles, which may be overfit and not predictive in a structurally different market.
• Some timestamps and cycle analogies are asserted with high confidence despite the inherent ambiguity of aligning different market regimes.
• The claim that the four-year cycle is still clearly intact is debatable, since the evidence offered is mostly historical resemblance rather than a causal explanation.
• The use of exact calendar windows like June and October may be too precise given the speaker repeatedly acknowledges uncertainty.
• The comparison of nominal price levels across different cycles is informative visually but not necessarily economically comparable without adjusting for broader market structure.