Benjamin Cowen argues that gold’s ~20–30% pullback is a normal correction within a still-intact longer-term bull market, and he frames it as a late-cycle asset that should eventually benefit again if recessionary stress and renewed policy easing arrive.
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This video is a bullish-long-term, cautious-near-term case for gold. Cowen says gold has dropped a little over 20% from the highs and may keep correcting in 2026, but he still expects it to trend higher later in the decade and possibly into the 2030s. His core framework is comparative: he repeatedly contrasts the S&P 500, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other risk assets versus gold to argue that gold has been outperforming on a relative basis in a late-business-cycle environment. He uses two historical analogs—1973 and 2008—to show that when the stock market breaks down against gold, the S&P tends to top and then underperform gold for a long time, even if gold itself also suffers a sharp drawdown. He emphasizes that in prior episodes, gold’s corrections were severe but did not end the broader bull market. …
Gold is tactically vulnerable after a large drawdown, so the near-term trade is about whether the correction extends before a base forms. Recession headlines or risk-off equity weakness could amplify volatility, but a quick snapback would not by itself prove the larger trend has turned.
Over the next few months, the base case is a choppy consolidation with gold’s direction hinging on whether labor and growth data deteriorate into a confirmed recession backdrop. If that happens, gold may initially wobble with risk assets, then regain relative strength faster than equities; if not, the correction could last longer without invalidating the secular uptrend.
Cowen’s structural view is that gold remains a late-cycle beneficiary and a long-duration portfolio diversifier, especially if policymakers respond to weakness with renewed easing or money creation. The long-run regime implication is that hard assets can outperform for years when real growth is stressed and financial assets are expensive on a relative basis.
Gold has fallen a little over 20% from the highs, and Cowen expects the correction may continue in 2026.
He opens by saying gold has dropped over 20% and that he previously suggested a deeper pullback in 2026.
Despite the pullback, gold should eventually move higher into the end of the decade and possibly the 2030s.
He explicitly states his longer-term view remains upward.
The S&P 500 has underperformed gold by roughly 43–44% since 2022.
He says the index is down 44% against gold since 2022.
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