Clive Thompson argues the macro backdrop is turning stagflationary: commodity and energy prices are rising, inflation is still above target, jobs are weakening, and central banks are trapped between fighting inflation and supporting growth. That mix, plus heavy debt burdens and weakening confidence in fiat currencies, is his core case for owning gold and silver, especially physical bullion.
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This is an interview on Soar Financially between host Kai and guest Clive Thompson, a long-time wealth manager and author of the 'Little Trot' book series. The conversation begins with book promotion and financial education for children, then moves into a macro discussion focused on inflation, commodity prices, Federal Reserve policy, the U.S. dollar, debt burdens, and precious metals. Thompson’s macro thesis is that commodity prices are the key risk to the global economy, citing World Bank forecasts for higher commodity and energy prices in 2026 and arguing these will feed into consumer prices. He says inflation is already above target, unemployment is rising, and the economy is sliding toward stagflation: slowing growth alongside sticky or rising prices. …
Near term, the main trade is around Fed communication and whether cuts arrive while inflation remains sticky; that combination would be the most immediate support for gold and silver. A sharp risk-off shock or a stronger-than-expected rise in real yields is the main tactical threat.
Over the next few months, the likely path in his view is slower growth with persistent price pressure, which keeps policymakers constrained and leaves precious metals favored on pullbacks. Confirmation would be rising inflation alongside weakening labor data; a durable rebound in real yields would challenge the setup.
Structurally, he thinks the world is moving deeper into a debt-saturated regime where fiat currencies are increasingly vulnerable and hard assets retain appeal. The long-run implication is that gold, silver, and other tangible stores of value become more important as policy credibility erodes.
Rising commodity prices are the key risk to the global economy.
He explicitly says commodity prices are the key risk and links them to consumer inflation.
Commodity prices will rise 16% in 2026 and energy prices 24%, feeding consumer inflation.
He cites World Bank forecasts and says they will feed through to consumer prices.
The Fed is trapped between raising rates to fight inflation and cutting rates to support jobs.
He says the policy goals are pulling in opposite directions.
What is your book 'Little Trot' about and what inspired you to write it?
Clive wrote five story books for 8-12 year olds to teach financial vocabulary. The books are: Little Trot Learns to Save Money, Little Trot Discovers Inflation, Little Trot Invests in Stocks, Little Trot and the Great Gold Rush, and Little Trot and the Goblin Tenants. They feature a hero named Little Trot and goblins as the baddies. Clive gives away the first book free on his website clivetompson.com.
What is your perception of the US economy right now?
Clive sees the key risk as rising commodity prices, with the World Bank forecasting a 16% rise in commodity prices and 24% rise in energy prices in 2026. This will feed through to consumer prices. The US is at 3.3% inflation, well above the 2% target. While AI and robotics reduce manufacturing costs, raw material input costs are rising. Unemployment is rising and jobs are getting harder to find. Higher energy costs feed through diesel, transport, and retail prices.
How closely are you following the monetary inflation side — the $600 billion pumped in through bank regulation that Michael Howell talked about?
Clive notes that US money supply has risen sharply in the last two years along with government debt. Monetary expansion and government debt are increasing in the 6-8% range and likely to continue. He poses the question to savers of how they measure their wealth — against official inflation (3% range), monetary expansion (6-8%), or a basket of real tangible assets. Gold, silver, and the S&P 500 have all been up more than 40% over the last year.
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