Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin’s post-FOMC weakness fits a broader late-business-cycle / bear-market setup, with oil, inflation, and labor-market weakness constraining the Fed and making a deeper pullback more likely.
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This video is a post-FOMC Bitcoin market update centered on Cowen’s view that the macro backdrop is deteriorating in a way that should eventually pressure Bitcoin lower. He argues that the Fed is in a difficult position because energy prices are spiking while labor-market indicators are weakening, creating a late-business-cycle environment where the Fed cannot easily cut without risking worse inflation. He ties this to his business-cycle framework, saying oil spikes have historically marked the end of business cycles and that geopolitical disruption is the catalyst driving the energy move. On Bitcoin specifically, he frames the recent rally as a countertrend move inside a broader bear-market structure, saying similar patterns in prior bear markets eventually resolved to new lows. …
Tactically, Bitcoin looks vulnerable after the FOMC reaction, with the near-term risk being a failed rally and a move back toward lower support. If oil stays hot and rate-cut odds keep fading, the downside can extend quickly.
Over the next few weeks or months, the base case is a choppy rollover in Bitcoin as the market digests a late-cycle Fed with limited policy flexibility. The setup improves only if energy prices cool enough to reopen the door to easing.
Structurally, Cowen is arguing that Bitcoin is still governed by the classic multi-year cycle regime rather than a permanently altered market structure. Until that regime clearly breaks, he thinks major tops and bear phases should continue to rhyme with prior cycles.
The Fed is in a difficult spot because energy prices are spiking while the labor market is weakening.
He argues the Fed is caught between inflation pressure from energy and softness in labor data.
Oil spikes are historically associated with the late stage and end of business cycles.
He uses his business-cycle framework and historical overlays to argue oil is a late-cycle warning signal.
Bitcoin’s current rally is likely a countertrend move rather than a durable new uptrend.
He compares the move to prior bear-market rallies and says similar setups later broke down.
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