Real Vision’s Macro Mondays focused on three linked macro themes: the Iran/Hormuz shipping situation, the inflation and credit-cycle implications of an energy shock, and whether the recent AI capex surge is a bubble. The hosts argued that markets are still treating the Iran risk with some apathy, the short-run impact on Western supply is likely limited, and the AI buildout still looks supported by accelerating hyperscaler capex and backlogs rather than classic bubble dynamics.
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This episode of Macro Mondays opened with a sponsorship segment, then shifted into a broad market discussion between co-hosts Mikkel Rosenvold and Andreas Steno. The main subjects were the Strait of Hormuz / Iran situation, the market and macro implications of a potential energy shock, the upcoming Trump–Xi meeting and related trade choke points, and the debate over whether AI infrastructure spending has become a bubble. On Iran, the hosts said the latest U.S. move to support commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz looked like a deliberate attempt to break a deadlock and force Iran to reveal whether it is truly willing to block shipping. They emphasized that the market reaction was mixed and noisy: overnight risk assets were modestly positive, then oil spiked on an unverified claim that a U.S. warship had been hit, before that story was walked back. …
Near term, the tape is most sensitive to fresh Strait of Hormuz headlines and oil spikes; if shipping disruptions stay limited, the market can likely absorb the noise. The tactical risk is a repeat of rumor-driven volatility that briefly pushes energy higher and then fades.
Over the next few months, the key question is whether energy pressure becomes broad inflation and then starts altering central-bank behavior. If rates stay relatively stable and hyperscaler earnings continue to justify capex, the AI trade can keep grinding higher; if not, the setup weakens quickly.
Structurally, the episode points to a world where geopolitical choke points and monetary policy jointly shape asset prices. The long-run regime implication is that strategic supply chains, not just earnings, determine when growth narratives survive or fail.
Microsoft’s quarterly report and its OpenAI-related backlog suggest the AI buildout is still accelerating rather than peaking.
Andreas says Microsoft’s backlog is huge, still growing, and important to the AI bubble debate.
The AI bubble debate can be postponed for now, but it would likely resurface if credit conditions deteriorate.
Andreas explicitly ties the bubble debate to the credit cycle and says the current trend is not yet broken.
Meta’s AI capex story is less convincing than Microsoft’s, Amazon’s, or Alphabet’s because Meta lacks a comparable backlog and AI monetization looks weak.
Andreas argues Meta is relying more on narrative than measurable traction.
What was your main takeaway from last week, with Jay Powell and the Mag 7 reports?
Andreas highlights the Microsoft quarterly report as the highlight, noting they still report a growing contractual backlog of roughly $300 billion related to OpenAI. He says the three big hyperscaler reports show capex and backlog are still accelerating, with backlog growing faster than capex, which he considers an underreported fact. He concludes the AI bubble discussion can be parked for now and won't fully resurface until the credit cycle trend changes.
What stood out about Meta's capex versus the other hyperscalers?
Andreas explains that Meta increased their capex guidance, but unlike Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet, they don't have a backlog supporting that capex. He argues Meta's story that AI improved ad prices doesn't pass an empirical test, since Meta AI isn't a relevant player in consumer AI space — growing from an incredibly low base with essentially irrelevant minutes spent. He calls it more storytelling than actual AI facts and remains unconvinced of Meta's capex spend.
What are the pitfalls for this AI wave — is it OpenAI having issues, or interest rates toppling the capex boom?
Andreas says he doesn't think we'll see a reversal of the AI trend until central banks pull the rock from under the credit cycle by raising the price of money. He notes that with inflation growing while front-end rates remain anchored, real interest rates are declining, which is not a bad scenario for AI. Both the Bank of England and ECB have postponed hiking talk. He emphasizes the Fed especially is treating the Strait of Hormuz issue with patience because hiking rates just before a potential peace deal would look foolish.
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