The interview centers on Gareth Soloway’s bearish near-term call for oil, equities, gold, and silver, paired with a short-term bullish setup in Bitcoin. He argues the biggest overlooked risk is private credit stress, which he thinks could interact with higher oil prices, stagflation, and a slowing consumer to trigger a recession-like drawdown.
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This is a host-led interview on The Real Story with Michelle McCrory featuring Gareth Soloway of Verified Investing. The discussion begins with Soloway revisiting his prior bullish oil call for early 2026 and saying that oil may now be near a top after the Iran conflict-driven spike. He argues oil should fall back below $70 within three months as the conflict de-escalates, demand destruction kicks in, and political pressure makes sustained high prices unlikely ahead of the midterms. He also turns bearish on energy equities such as Occidental and Chevron after their parabolic moves. From there the conversation broadens into macro risk. Soloway says the bigger market threat is not oil itself but private credit stress: redemptions, write-downs, back leverage, and AI-related lending exposure could create contagion into banks and the broader system. …
Near term, the setup is risk-off on oil, gold, silver, and equities after a crowded geopolitical spike, while Bitcoin is the one asset he wants to own for a snapback. The immediate tactical danger is a forced-liquidity flush in anything that has run too far, especially if private-credit headlines worsen.
Over the next few months, Soloway’s base case is that inflation stays sticky enough to pressure consumers, then growth rolls over into recession-like conditions even if the Fed cuts. If oil falls and the private-credit scare proves contained, the market could stage rallies, but he expects lower highs to dominate.
Structurally, he thinks the system is still living on borrowed time from years of QE, deficits, and leverage, so the real regime risk is a delayed but larger debt/liquidity unwind. At the same time, he remains constructive on precious metals and Bitcoin over multi-year horizons because he sees debasement and distrust in fiat as lasting themes.
Oil is nearing a top and could fall back below $70 within about three months.
He says the move has become a hysteria trade and that demand destruction and de-escalation will reverse the spike.
Higher oil prices will eventually create demand destruction and slow the economy, bringing oil down naturally.
He argues the best solution for high oil prices is high oil prices because consumers drive less and the economy slows.
The biggest overlooked market risk is private credit stress, not oil or the war itself.
He repeatedly says the private credit market is the real issue and that headlines about war are distracting investors from it.
What is the biggest risk you see in the market right now?
Soloway says the biggest risk is not oil but private credit stress, which he thinks is being overshadowed by war headlines and could become the main driver of downside.
What would push oil down to 3500?
He says a broad fear-and-panic deleveraging event would force liquidation across assets, including gold, before central-bank and safe-haven demand reassert themselves.
What are the charts telling you about gold right now?
He says gold has formed a bearish pattern and expects a near-term drop before a larger long-term advance.
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