Michelle Makori and Andy Schectman argue that the Iran war is likely to intensify, stay longer than advertised, and ultimately be bullish for gold and silver despite their muted immediate reaction. Schectman says the flat metals response reflects managed markets, ETF redemptions, and physical delivery demand, while Makori presses the counterview that a strong dollar, higher-for-longer rates, and expectations of a contained conflict could explain the move.
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This interview centers on why gold and silver have not surged more aggressively despite the escalation of the Iran war and what the conflict may mean for the dollar, energy markets, and the global monetary system. Michelle Makori frames the backdrop: the war is entering its second week, oil has been volatile, the Strait of Hormuz is a critical choke point, and historically geopolitical shocks have lifted gold. Andy Schectman rejects the idea that markets always react immediately or efficiently to war and instead argues that price is being managed through futures and ETFs, especially GLD. He points to a record GLD outflow and says that, in his view, these are not signs of weak demand but of authorized participants redeeming shares for physical metal quietly. …
Near term, the actionable setup is still driven by war headlines, oil spikes, and any visible break from the current range in gold or silver. The biggest tactical risk is that markets keep treating the conflict as containable and price-in the dollar/rates story instead.
Over the next several weeks, the base case here is a messy, longer-than-promised conflict that keeps pressure on oil, deficits, and funding markets while physical metal demand remains firm. If delivery tightness and fiscal strain keep building, the metals narrative can move from 'why no rally?' to 'why the lagged catch-up?'
Structurally, the interview argues that war is another catalyst for a slower-moving regime shift away from dollar centrality and toward hard-asset preference. Whether or not this specific conflict achieves geopolitical aims, the lasting implication is that gold and silver are being treated more like monetary insurance against a system of rising debt and declining trust.
Gold’s muted reaction to the Iran war is better explained by market management and paper-market mechanics than by a lack of underlying demand.
Schectman says he does not believe markets simply react predictably to war and argues the move is being managed through futures and ETFs.
Large GLD outflows are likely the result of authorized participants redeeming shares for physical gold, not investors abandoning gold exposure.
He describes GLD as a deliverable reservoir and says the structure allows large institutions to redeem baskets for metal quietly.
War, deficits, inflation, and debt issuance should ultimately push gold higher even if the price remains range-bound in the near term.
Schectman repeatedly says the conflict adds to debt and monetization pressures and that gold benefits from loss of confidence.
Why hasn't gold moved significantly higher on the geopolitical uncertainty from the war?
Andy says he does not believe markets always rally on war; in his view, the reaction is often managed and can even sell off. He argues the real drivers for gold are loss of confidence, uncertainty, debt issuance, and inflation, and that gold would likely be higher and the dollar lower without that management.
What do you mean by management of perception economics in the gold market?
He says the market is managed through COMEX and ETFs like GLD. He points to a huge GLD outflow and argues it may actually reflect authorized participants redeeming shares to take possession of physical metal, rather than investors simply abandoning gold.
What does the large GLD outflow suggest about who wants gold right now?
He argues the outflow does not mean nobody wants gold; instead, someone wants bars more than ETF exposure. In his view, big banks and authorized participants may be redeeming shares and quietly taking delivery of physical gold.
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