Todd Horwitz warns the market is in a late-cycle, fear-and-FOMO-fueled rally that he thinks can still run near term but is vulnerable to a major selloff. He is bearish on crude and many momentum equities, bullish on gold, silver, platinum, grains, and selectively bullish on Bitcoin after a breakout.
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Todd Horwitz argues that current equity strength is a "retail rally" supported by persistent inflows and weak participation from large institutions, while underlying economic conditions remain poor. He says the economy cannot support current oil prices absent war-related fear, expects crude to fall back toward the 60s by year-end, and frames high oil as inflationary and damaging for autos, farming, and jobs. On stocks, he repeatedly emphasizes that parabolic moves are a warning sign. He points to Intel and Micron as examples of speculative FOMO and short squeezes, saying such moves resemble the 1990s and are unsustainable. He says he is short Micron and would look to sell parabolic rallies rather than chase them. …
Near term, the setup is still momentum-positive but crowded, with crude and several hot single names vulnerable to sharp reversals if headlines or positioning shift. He would not chase the rally here and prefers to sell strength, especially in parabolic names.
Over the next few weeks to months, he expects the market to separate: broad equities may wobble while oil weakens and precious metals trend higher. Confirmation would come from rising downside participation, while a renewed institutional bid would force him to reassess the bearish equity call.
Structurally, he thinks this is a late-cycle market where leverage, FOMO, and technology-driven trading can push prices higher temporarily but cannot prevent a larger reset. His durable thesis is that productive assets and real optionality matter more than speculative momentum when the cycle turns.
The current market is setting up like a late-stage speculative blowoff similar to the 1990s.
He repeatedly compares the current environment to the '90s, emphasizing giant moves, happy investors, and overleverage before a reversal.
He still expects a substantial equity selloff, with a downside target of 40% to 60%, though not immediately.
He states the same large crash target multiple times but says it is not a tomorrow/next week call.
The current equity rally is being powered mainly by retail/passive flows while big institutions are waiting to sell.
He defines the move as a 'retail rally' and says big banks and funds are not selling yet but are waiting on the sidelines.
Is there anything right now that you would feel comfortable buying and holding for the remainder of the year without trading it?
Todd says he is still long the market despite a negative feel. He recommends buying index funds or good companies like Apple and Nvidia that actually make money, as they have proven to grow at an average of 8.5% year-over-year through various industrial and technical revolutions. He advises that retail investors aren't trying to compete with JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs — they are trying to make their money grow faster than inflation for retirement.
How has the landscape of trading and investing fundamentally shifted with technology since your early days on the floor?
Todd says it has shifted dramatically. There are no more floor traders, so there is no true order flow to read. Bots trade based on fundamentals and technicals, and many independent traders have been eliminated. However, AI does not eliminate the human element of panic selling — price discovery still requires individual market participants to push the sell button when they panic, and that is when real selloffs happen.
If institutional investors like Citadel and Jane Street will always have a technological and experiential edge, how do retail traders compete? Why not just buy the index fund and go to sleep?
Todd responds that retail traders are not trying to compete with JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs — they are trying to make money. Most people are investing (not day trading), looking to grow their money faster than inflation so they can retire comfortably. He reiterates his advice to buy index funds or good companies that make money.
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