David Hunter argues the market is in the early phase of a final parabolic melt-up, with major U.S. equity indexes, gold, silver, and risk assets set to run much higher over the next few months, helped by improving sentiment, lower oil, lower rates, and eventual resolution around Iran.
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This interview features David Hunter, chief macro strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors, laying out a two-stage macro path. In the near term, he expects a final melt-up in U.S. equities over the next 2-3 months, with broad participation beyond semis/AI, driven by still-skeptical sentiment, a potential easing of Iran-related risk, lower oil prices, lower interest rates, and a weaker dollar. He gave aggressive upside targets for the S&P 500 (9,500), Dow (65,000), Nasdaq (32,000), and Russell 2000 (3,800), arguing the market has only begun its parabolic phase. He extends the same framework to commodities and precious metals, saying gold could reach 6,800 this year and silver 180 this year, with both potentially moving much higher later in the decade after a bust-induced policy response. …
Tactically bullish: Hunter thinks equities, gold, and silver are in the early stage of a sharp upside acceleration, with oil and Iran the key short-term swing factors. If oil fades and rates/dollar follow, the setup supports a fast risk-on squeeze.
Over the next several weeks to months, his base case is a broadening advance that runs until sentiment turns euphoric. A failure of oil/rates to roll over would mainly delay the move rather than fully invalidate it.
Structurally bearish on the current debt regime but bullish on hard assets after the next crisis. He expects a bust, massive monetary response, and then an inflationary commodity supercycle that could reset relative winners for years.
The current market move is the beginning of a final parabolic stage of a 43- to 44-year secular bull market.
Hunter says the long secular bull is ending and the latest move is the start of the vertical phase.
The S&P 500 can reach 9,500, the Dow 65,000, the Nasdaq 32,000, and the Russell 2000 3,800 within the next 2–3 months.
He gives specific aggressive upside targets and a very short timeline.
Investor sentiment remains subdued enough to fuel further upside, rather than marking an overbought top.
He frames current skepticism as a 'wall of worry' and says the top will only come when everyone is all-in.
What are your expectations for a broader meltup and where are we in that meltup process?
David Hunter expects the final stage of a 43-44 year secular bull market to peak this year with a parabolic run that has already begun. He targets S&P 9500, Dow 65,000, NASDAQ 32,000, and Russell 2000 3,800 — expecting 24-34% upside from current levels within the next 2-3 months. He compares it to silver's parabolic move from 50 to 122.
What is the trigger pushing indexes higher, given many think they've already gone too far?
Hunter says sentiment is still subdued — a 'wall of worry' that provides fuel. He notes that even after doubling from Oct 2022 lows, investors remain skeptical and hedge funds are short. He also points to lower interest rates, a lower dollar, strong earnings, and potential resolution of the Iran conflict as catalysts. A resolution would push oil back to the 70s/60s, lowering rates and boosting bullishness, causing a concentrated wave of buying.
Do you see the Iran conflict wrapping up more quickly than others expect, and what's the long-term impact?
Hunter disagrees with the prevailing negative view. He argues markets discount the future — oil will drop as fast as it rose once a resolution is in sight, regardless of lingering supply chain issues. He attributes the overly negative outlook partly to media bias against Trump, and points to technical signs (silver breaking out, rates dropping, dollar falling) as evidence the turn has already begun.
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