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NET Earnings Crash: Semis Still Surging — Levels to Trade or Fade

Channel: Verified Investing Published: 2026-05-08 11:30
Verified Investing

A technical market update focused on semiconductor momentum and trade levels. The speaker argues that broad semis remain strong, but several names are approaching resistance where he prefers short entries or tactical fades, while Cloudflare and some laggards have fallen hard after earnings.

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Detailed summary

Benjamin Pool of Verified Investing walks through a set of chart-based trade ideas in a strong semiconductor tape. He starts with the broad market, saying the S&P 500/SPY and QQQ are still in control by bulls, though he is watching prior pivot highs and trend lines for possible rejections rather than expecting deep pullbacks. He then moves into individual semis and related names: Intel, Micron, SanDisk, NVIDIA, AMD, ARM, and a Cloudflare post-earnings selloff. The consistent theme is that semis are surging, but several stocks are extended into resistance zones where he thinks short setups or fading rallies may offer better risk/reward. He also identifies lower support levels on names like Cloudflare and AET for potential continuation lower or, in AET's case, a possible long only much lower. …

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Main takeaways

  1. The speaker sees the semiconductor group as broadly strong, with bulls still in control despite some intraday pullbacks.
  2. He repeatedly frames trades around prior pivots, gaps, and daily trend lines rather than fundamentals.
  3. QQQ and SPY are viewed as near resistance zones, but not yet broken down enough for a strong bearish thesis.
  4. Several semiconductor names are described as shortable or fadeable only after sharp advances into resistance.
  5. Cloudflare's post-earnings gap-down is treated as a continuation-lower setup unless support holds.
  6. The outlook is highly tactical: levels matter more than narratives, and stops are emphasized repeatedly.

Market read by horizon

Short term

Near term, the tape still favors momentum in semis, but several names are stretched into resistance and could fade if they fail at the cited pivots. The actionable risk is chasing upside into those levels without a defined stop.

  • QQQ is near a technical rejection area around the prior pivot/around $710, but the speaker warns pullbacks are not deep enough to press too hard on a swing short.
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  • SPY/S&P is still under bullish control; he wants to see a break back below the upswing trend line before getting more bearish.
  • Intel is viewed as a short if it gets above $120, with more aggressive traders already looking to scale in from around $117.09.
Mid term

Over the next few weeks, the base case is continued leadership from semis with periodic mean reversion at prior highs and gap levels. The view would weaken if the major indices reclaim and hold the overhead pivots, turning those resistance zones into support.

  • Over the next several weeks, the base case is still strength in semiconductors, but the speaker expects intermittent pullbacks when names retest prior pivots and trend-line resistance.
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  • If QQQ/SPY can reclaim and hold their key pivots, it would weaken his short bias and keep the broader bullish trend intact.
  • For NVIDIA and AMD, the key validation is whether they fail at the current retracement or break back above the daily trend lines; a close above those levels would shift the tone back toward upside continuation.
Long term

Structurally, the transcript points to a market regime where semiconductors remain the key leadership cohort and technical breadth inside the group will keep driving trading opportunities. The bigger implication is that trend leadership, not valuation talk, is what matters until the sector loses its higher-highs and higher-lows pattern.

  • The transcript implies a broader regime where semiconductors remain a leadership group even after sharp daily swings.
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  • The lasting thesis is that price action in leading tech and AI-linked semis continues to define market risk appetite and short opportunities.
  • A durable breakdown would require repeated loss of trend support across the major indices and leadership names; absent that, the structural bias stays with the bulls.
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Key claims (10)

2:30
MIXED U.S. equity trend QQQ/SPY

The major indices are still trending higher, but the speaker is watching for tactical rejection zones rather than calling an outright top.

He says the markets are surging, but QQQ and SPY have nearby pivots and trend lines that could still trigger rejection.

4:15
BEARISH U.S. equities QQQ

QQQ has a nearby technical rejection level around the prior pivot area near $710, but the speaker is cautious because the market is not producing deep pullbacks.

He marks a pivot top and says the Q should get a solid rejection if it reaches that level, while also noting that strong pullbacks have not materialized.

9:40
BULLISH U.S. equities SPY

SPY remains in bullish control unless it breaks the upward trend line and fails to reclaim the prior pivot.

He says the bears are no longer in control and that a daily close below the uptrend line would be needed to shift the picture.

Unlock 7 more claims See the full bullish, bearish, and counter-consensus argument map extracted from the transcript. Unlock all claims

Assets discussed (10)

QQQ — QQQ
MIXED etf

Bullish overall trend, but the speaker sees a nearby rejection zone around prior pivots and warns shorts need caution because pullbacks are shallow.

SPY — SPY
MIXED etf

The speaker says bulls are in control, but also flags the prior pivot and uptrend line as levels where a selloff could resume.

Unlock the full asset map (8 more) See all assets mentioned, their directional bias, and the exact reasoning. Unlock asset map

Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • The reasoning is highly level-driven but gives limited evidence beyond chart patterns, so the case can feel circular: levels matter because price reacted there before.
  • Several short ideas are presented even while the speaker says bulls remain in control and pullbacks are shallow, which weakens conviction on the bearish side.
  • Some price references appear inconsistent or garbled in the transcript, making exact trade levels less reliable without the charts.
  • The Cloudflare thesis assumes support should hold because it has been a big one-day move, but no fundamental post-earnings rationale is offered for why the decline should stop there.
  • The broad claim that semis are 'still really in control' sits somewhat uneasily beside multiple near-term short setups in the same group.

Topics

semiconductor strengthQQQ and SPY levelstechnical resistance and supportIntel trade setupMicron trade setupSanDisk trade setupCloudflare post-earnings selloffNVIDIA retracementAMD upside resistanceARM lagging performance

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