Interview with Rafi Farber arguing that war tends to trigger a short-term dollar/liquidity bid and near-term weakness in gold and silver, but that the broader trend remains bullish for precious metals versus stocks and for hard assets versus credit-based portfolios.
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The video opens with a silver giveaway promotion, then shifts into an interview between host Ivan and Rafi Farber of Endgame Investor. The discussion centers on the Middle East war, the Strait of Hormuz, oil shipping risk, precious metals, inflation, and the fragility of credit markets. Farber argues that in the immediate aftermath of war, investors usually seek liquidity, which means the dollar gets a bid and gold/silver can fall even when the underlying geopolitical uncertainty is rising. He cites prior war episodes, especially Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, to say oil spikes first and then often rolls over after the initial shock. He says the monetary consequences of war still matter because war spending and destruction eventually feed higher prices and stress the financial system. …
Tactically, war headlines favor a dollar/liquidity bid first, so gold and silver can stay choppy or even weak before any sustained upside emerges. Watch oil, shipping insurance, and risk-asset response for the next tell.
Over weeks to months, the better base case is that metals hold up relative to equities while credit stress broadens and the market rotates away from leveraged yield plays. That view weakens if the conflict fades quickly and risk assets reassert leadership.
Structurally, the transcript argues for a regime where fiat liquidity, war spending, and credit expansion erode purchasing power, leaving precious metals and other hard assets as the durable store of value. The long-run implication is continued fragility for debt-heavy portfolios and empire-style monetary pressure.
In the immediate aftermath of war, gold and silver often fall because investors rush into dollars for liquidity.
He explicitly says uncertainty drives a rush for dollars and people sell gold and silver first.
War usually causes oil to spike first and then fall after the initial shock.
He cites the Russia-Ukraine example and says oil jumped then topped out before declining.
Gold and silver are trending higher versus the S&P 500 even if their dollar prices can still correct.
He says metals are edging higher relative to stocks and that the relative trend has been intact since early 2025.
What are your thoughts right now on precious metals — after the war broke out in the Middle East, many expected a big jump in gold and silver but instead we've seen sideways motion or declines.
Rafy explains that historically when wars break out, oil spikes briefly then falls, as happened in 2022 with Russia and Ukraine. Gold initially declines because uncertainty drives a rush to the dollar for liquidity — people sell everything including gold to have cash on hand. He says the monetary consequences (spending to blow things up and rebuild) will eventually be felt through higher prices, but the short-term effect is a dollar bid.
Are we going to start seeing an increase in silver and gold prices now that the initial breakout of the war has started — what happens now to silver and gold?
Rafy says he doesn't know what happens in dollar terms — they'll have to wait for the dust to settle. However, he points out that on a chart basis, gold and silver are both edging higher versus the S&P 500, meaning purchasing power is leaking out of mainstream portfolios into precious metals. He expects the S&P and bubbly tech stocks to go down faster than metals, and notes that war tends to accelerate the breakdown of the risk curve.
What would be your advice for people right now going into 2026 — how do they prepare themselves or protect themselves for a 2008-style collapse if it does come?
Rafy advises getting out of fake assets — high-rate, high-yield debt. Get off the pyramid as much as possible. He acknowledges the need for some liquidity (dollars may rise during war for that reason), but warns not to let the war fool you — it will end, and when it does, we could already be in the endgame where war and currency collapse come together.
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