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The END of the Dollar? De-dollarization EXPOSED! (Technical Analysis)

Channel: Gareth Soloway Published: 2026-05-10 12:01
Gareth Soloway

Gareth Soloway argues the U.S. dollar is in a long-term de-dollarization downtrend, with the DXY weak despite geopolitically supportive conditions and likely headed toward 95 before potentially 88–90 later. He says major FX charts for the euro, pound, Canadian dollar, and Aussie dollar are breaking out against the dollar, while the yen remains comparatively weak but may be near support.

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Detailed summary

The video is a technical-analysis update on the U.S. dollar and major currency pairs. Gareth Soloway says the Dollar Index (DXY) remains exceptionally weak even amid conflict with Iran and a closed Strait of Hormuz, which he interprets as a warning sign that the dollar’s longer-term downtrend is intact. He highlights a loss of technical support around 100–101.50, a failed reclaim attempt, and a recent close below a key pivot area as evidence that the dollar may be in the early stages of a deeper decline. He frames this as part of a broader de-dollarization trend, but repeatedly emphasizes that reserve-currency shifts take decades, not months. In his view, the near-term path can still include chop and even short-term weakness in gold and silver, while the long-term setup remains bullish for precious metals because the dollar’s structural role is eroding. …

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Main takeaways

  1. Soloway’s core thesis is that de-dollarization is a long-running structural process, not an overnight event.
  2. The DXY lost important support and is failing to recover, which he treats as a warning for further downside.
  3. He expects a near-term test of 95 on the DXY if the breakdown confirms, with 88–90 as a later target.
  4. EUR, GBP, CAD, and AUD are presented as technically stronger against the dollar.
  5. He separates short-term noise from the longer-term thesis: gold and silver can still dip, but remain bullish over time.
  6. The yen is the laggard among the major currencies discussed, though he thinks it may be near support.

Market read by horizon

Short term

Tactically, the dollar looks vulnerable while it remains below the broken DXY support zone; 95 is the key near-term downside checkpoint. A sharp reclaim of that area would be the main short-term risk to the bearish setup.

  • The immediate focus is whether the DXY’s close below the pivot area turns into a confirmed breakdown.
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  • 95 is the first major downside area he expects the dollar to test, with 94–95 cited as nearby support.
  • If the dollar stabilizes back above the broken zone, that would weaken the bearish setup and delay the next leg lower.
Mid term

Over the next few weeks to months, the base case is continued dollar pressure and relative strength in major non-USD pairs if the breakout structures hold. The view weakens if DXY reclaims prior support and foreign currency breakouts fail to follow through.

  • Over the next several weeks to months, he expects the dollar to remain pressured unless it can reclaim prior support cleanly.
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  • His base case is a drift toward the 95 region on the DXY later this year, with foreign currencies continuing to outperform if current chart patterns hold.
  • Confirmation would come from follow-through selling in the dollar and continued breakout behavior in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and USD/CAD.
Long term

Structurally, Soloway is arguing for a slow-moving de-dollarization regime that should keep the dollar weaker over time and favor hard assets and non-USD currencies. The lasting implication is not a sudden collapse, but a persistent erosion of dollar dominance.

  • He argues the move away from the U.S. dollar as reserve currency is a decades-long regime shift, not a quick collapse.
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  • A sustained weaker-dollar regime would support a long-term bullish case for gold and silver as monetary alternatives.
  • His longer-horizon DXY view is for a move into the high 80s to around 90, which would signal a materially different FX regime.
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Key claims (10)

0:30
BEARISH de-dollarization U.S. dollar

De-dollarization is firmly in place as a long-term trend away from the U.S. dollar as reserve currency.

He explicitly says the long-term play of de-dollarization is firmly in place and that reserve-currency shifts take decades.

1:30
BEARISH U.S. dollar weakness DXY

The DXY remains exceptionally weak and is trading below the key support zone around 100-101.50.

He says the index held that zone repeatedly before breaking below it in April 2025 and failing to reclaim it.

2:15
NEUTRAL price confirmation DXY

A close below support is not enough by itself; the breakdown still needs confirmation.

He explicitly cautions that a close below levels does not automatically mean breakdowns.

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Assets discussed (8)

U.S. Dollar Index — DXY
BEARISH index

Below key support; speaker targets 95 and eventually 88-90.

Euro / U.S. dollar — EURUSD
BULLISH fx

Already broken out and in bullish consolidation.

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Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • He equates a geopolitical narrative with a likely market outcome, but the chart evidence alone is not sufficient to prove a durable reserve-currency shift.
  • The claim that Iran conflict and a closed Strait of Hormuz should support the dollar is asserted more than demonstrated; the link is plausible but not rigorously shown.
  • The long-term DXY targets (88–90) are directional and technically framed, but the timing is broad and highly uncertain.
  • He treats short-term closes below support as meaningful warnings, yet also correctly notes they are not full breakdowns—this makes the near-term call conditional rather than settled.
  • The explanation that foreign governments are reducing dollar exposure because of U.S. ‘bullying’ is more narrative than evidenced in the video.

Topics

U.S. dollarde-dollarizationDXY technical analysiseuroBritish poundCanadian dollarAustralian dollarJapanese yengold and silverreserve currency

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