Pierre Lassonde argues gold’s structural bull market remains intact, driven by U.S. deficits, debt monetization, central bank buying, and a shift toward hard assets. He says his $17,250 gold target still stands, and that disciplined gold miners with strong balance sheets and low dilution could see substantial margin expansion, while most juniors remain speculative.
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This Kitco News interview centers on Pierre Lassonde’s unchanged bullish thesis for gold and select mining equities. Lassonde says today’s backdrop resembles the late 1970s: inflation is re-accelerating, rates may stay constrained by heavy leverage, deficits are large, and the Federal Reserve is effectively monetizing debt. He argues gold is increasingly acting less like a commodity and more like a currency of last reserve when confidence in the dollar weakens. He reiterates his prior framework that gold can reach $17,250, tying that target to the Dow/gold ratio and a possible 2:1 relationship rather than an extreme 1:1 scenario. He emphasizes that central banks have become major marginal buyers, that the reserve system is shifting away from dollar dominance, and that gold demand is increasingly anchored in physical markets, especially Shanghai and central-bank purchasing. …
Tactically bullish on gold while the market continues to digest inflation, debt, and central-bank demand. Near-term pullbacks look like noise unless real rates rise sharply or the dollar stages a durable rebound.
Over the next few months, the base case is continued upside in gold and a selective rerating of well-run miners if margins and shareholder returns keep improving. The thesis weakens if policy credibility improves materially or if a recession forces broad liquidation before the trend matures.
Structurally, Lassonde sees a regime shift away from dollar-centric reserve dominance toward hard assets and physical metal control. If that holds, gold becomes both a monetary asset and a strategic reserve hedge, while disciplined miners become operating leverage on that regime.
Lassonde still uses a $17,250 gold target as his base framework.
He explicitly says the target remains solid and says he is convinced it can happen within about three years.
The current setup resembles the late 1970s, with inflation, rates, and gold all moving higher.
He repeatedly compares today to the 1970s and says history is repeating in broad macro form.
U.S. deficits and debt monetization are a central reason gold is rising.
He says the Fed is effectively monetizing debt and printing dollars, which supports gold.
Is the Dow-to-gold ratio target of $17,250 for gold, based on roughly a 2:1 ratio, still your working framework?
Yes, absolutely. The parallel between today and the late 1970s is incredible. He sees inflation rising to 4-4.5% by year-end, and while 1970s inflation hit 12-14%, today's extreme leverage (US debt approaching $40 trillion) makes it very difficult for the Fed to raise rates, which actually strengthens the bullish case.
If inflation stays sticky while growth slows, does that strengthen your 1970s framework or is today's setup more dangerous because of leverage?
He explains that 80% of gold's value is tied to the US dollar, and the US budget deficit at 7.9% of GDP is banana republic territory. The Fed is monetizing the debt and printing dollars, which is why gold is reacting as it is. He believes the January low around $4,300 was the bottom for this cycle.
Is gold less of a commodity trade and more of a vote on US fiscal credibility, given the debt and deficit trajectory?
Gold is 90% of the time a commodity, but 10% of the time it is the currency of last reserve when the dollar fails that role, which is happening now. China has created a parallel system to SWIFT growing 50-100% every six months. US politicians won't raise taxes or cut benefits, so they print money instead. Until someone rights the ship, bet on gold.
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