ABC News Australia interviews University of Sydney housing expert Nicole Gurran about Australia’s housing affordability problem, focusing on tax reform, rental stress, and expanding social and affordable housing supply.
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This ABC News Australia segment is a concise policy interview with Nicole Gurran of the University of Sydney about housing affordability. Gurran argues the government should focus on two tracks at once: reform inefficient tax settings such as negative gearing and capital gains tax, and dramatically expand support for households under extreme housing stress through rental subsidies plus more social and affordable housing supply. She says the affordability problem has broadened beyond traditional low-income households. In her view, renters across the income spectrum — including people above median incomes — are now struggling to access housing without government help. …
Tactically, the key near-term event is the budget: any concrete housing package or first-home-buyer support would matter most. If the announcement is vague or purely rhetorical, the affordability setup remains unchanged.
Over the next few months, the base case is ongoing housing stress unless policy actually increases deliverable supply and targeted help. The setup improves if reforms are aimed at new, affordable homes; it weakens if debate stays centered on tax settings alone.
The structural message is that Australian housing has become a broad affordability regime problem spanning low- and moderate-income households. That implies lasting pressure unless tax, planning, rental, and social-housing tools are coordinated together.
Negative gearing and capital gains tax are inefficient mechanisms for stimulating new housing supply.
Gurran says research suggests these tax settings do not meaningfully increase new builds.
Most investor loans using negative gearing go to existing housing stock, not new supply.
This supports the claim that the policy mainly pushes up prices of established homes.
Around 10% of Australian households are enduring extreme housing stress and need more rental subsidies and social housing.
She identifies the most acute pressure point as households in extreme stress requiring direct support.
In your view, where are the pressure points that the government should be focused on?
Gurran says the government should focus on tax reform, especially negative gearing and capital gains tax, while also supporting the 10% of households in extreme housing stress with more rental subsidies and social housing supply.
Has the definition of social and affordable housing changed as cost-of-living pressures spread?
Yes. She says renters across the income spectrum, including above-median-income households, now need assistance, and policy should include planning-system approaches as well as traditional public housing.
Do capital gains tax and negative gearing changes have much impact on the housing crisis?
She says these measures have been inefficient at stimulating new housing supply and mostly support existing dwellings; reform would be better if it targeted new and ideally affordable housing supply.
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