WARNING: The 18-Year Market Cycle is ENDING. AI Bubble CRASH Imminent?

Gareth Soloway, speaking as chief market strategist at verifiedinvesting.com, frames the current market as the end of an 18-year secular bull cycle that began in 2008 and resembles prior cycle endings such as 2000. He focuses on the S&P 500 and semiconductor stocks/indexes, arguing that the recent move in semis has become parabolic, overstretched, and possibly in the final phase of the AI trade. He points to trendline breaks, logarithmic trendline resistance, and a bearish RSI divergence as evidence that a pullback or larger reversal is increasingly likely. He repeatedly emphasizes that his process is probabilistic and that he was early on the semiconductor short. He says the market can stay irrational longer than expected, but believes the narrative is starting to shift as media headlines move from bullish to cautious. …

1. The speaker’s core thesis is that the 18-year secular bull market is nearing its end.
2. He thinks semiconductors are in a late-stage blowoff top and may be starting a meaningful pullback.
3. He treats technicals as probabilistic and admits he was early on the short.
4. He believes the market narrative is shifting from euphoria to caution.
5. He argues semiconductor valuations are misleadingly cheap because they are cyclical and near peak earnings.
6. He is skeptical that massive AI capex will produce near-term returns large enough to justify current enthusiasm.

• The 18-year cycle framing is presented as meaningful, but the causal link between the cycle and an imminent top is asserted more than demonstrated.
• He relies heavily on chart overlays and narrative change, but offers limited objective evidence that institutions are already done selling.
• The comparison to 2000 is suggestive, yet the current AI/compute economy is materially different from the dot-com era in funding, profitability, and real demand.
• His claim that semiconductor valuations are cheap only because the cycle is near peak margins is plausible, but not demonstrated with current earnings data in the video.
• The assumption that consumer AI subscriptions must be the main monetization path may understate enterprise, infrastructure, and embedded use cases.