Gareth Soloway frames the tape as a technical setup dominated by oil’s reversal, a still-unconfirmed S&P 500 breakdown, and Oracle’s earnings as a key AI-trade test. He remains tactically bearish on risk assets over the medium term, while still trading individual levels and managing size aggressively.
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This is a solo market update from Gareth Soloway of Verified Investing. He opens with a strong endorsement of technical analysis and describes recent oil trading as a probability-based short after a parabolic spike and reversal. He says oil surged toward 120, then reversed sharply after presidential comments suggesting the war could end sooner, and he used that move plus trendline resistance and macro pressure from inflation/elections to justify shorting. He emphasizes that the move in oil was extreme, that he took profits on the short, and that he would re-short if oil retraced back above 100. He then turns to the S&P 500 and says the market is still hovering around a key trendline that was broken intraday but never fully confirmed to the downside. …
Near term, the setup is still tactically fragile: oil’s reversal may cushion sentiment for a bit, but the bigger move likely waits on Oracle and whether S&P support actually fails. Until confirmation, this looks like a choppy market where rallies can persist but downside risk remains elevated.
Over the next several weeks, he expects rallies to be sold if the S&P breakdown confirms and if the AI complex weakens on Oracle’s report. The base case is a broader risk-off phase with intermittent bounces, unless earnings and economic data repair the damage.
Structurally, the transcript argues that the market is transitioning from euphoric leadership into a more vulnerable regime where technical breakdowns and economic slowing matter more than narrative excitement. The lasting thesis is that disciplined sizing and chart confirmation matter more than chasing thematic stories.
Oil’s surge to around 120 followed by a sharp reversal created a tradable shorting opportunity.
He says he had been shorting oil into the spike and profited from the collapse back into the 80s.
The S&P 500 has not yet confirmed its downside breakdown, but a confirmed failure of trendline support could lead to a larger drop.
He repeatedly says the market can float higher first, but the key issue is whether it comes back down and confirms the breakdown.
A bigger equity decline this year would be driven more by a weakening U.S. economy than by oil alone.
He explicitly says oil is a contributing factor but not the make-or-break factor for the market.
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