Gareth Soloway argues the market sold off because of a bad jobs report and an extreme oil spike, with the S&P 500 breaking a key trend line and Monday now the key confirmation day. He is selectively buying some oversold names while shorting oil, and he frames the next move as highly dependent on whether oil keeps surging or gets relieved by policy/news over the weekend.
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In this weekly wrap-up, Gareth Soloway says the main driver of the day’s risk-off move was the combination of a weak February jobs report and an explosive move in crude oil. He notes the S&P 500 fell 1.33% and the Nasdaq about 1.5%, while oil surged above $90 per barrel and roughly 35% to 36% for the week, creating what he sees as a potentially economy-damaging shock. He emphasizes that the S&P has now closed below a key rising trend line, calling Monday pivotal to confirm whether the breakdown continues. He says the intraday action looked relatively orderly, but the daily chart is what matters, and he thinks the index could fall further if the breakdown holds. He gives downside technical targets for the S&P around 6,500 and potentially 6,100 if the move is confirmed. …
Immediate setup is bearish for risk assets unless crude cools off before Sunday night. The key tactical risk is a gap-down Monday if oil stays pinned near or above $90 and the S&P breakdown confirms.
Over the next few weeks, the base case is a defensive market with higher volatility, where crude direction sets the tone for equities. A relief rally is possible if oil fades quickly or policy/news changes the narrative, but a sustained hold above the broken S&P trend line would favor lower equity prices.
Structurally, the video argues that energy shocks can still override conventional equity narratives and create a regime of inflation pressure, political sensitivity, and factor rotation into large-cap defensives. The lasting implication is that commodities may be reclaiming market leadership in periods of macro stress.
The S&P 500 fell 1.33% and the Nasdaq fell about 1.5% on the day.
Direct performance recap of the market move.
The weak February jobs report worsened an already fragile macro setup.
He ties the bad jobs number to broader economic concern and oil shock pressure.
Oil spiking above $90 per barrel is the key force driving near-term market anxiety.
He repeatedly says everything is hinging on oil and that high oil is pressuring equities.
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