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Hot CPI Read, Markets Sell Off, My New Position | Market Monitor

Channel: Future Investing Published: 2026-05-12 13:51
Future Investing

The speaker framed the session as a broad market wrap after a hotter-than-expected CPI print and a tech-led selloff, then centered most of the discussion on his new starter position in CoreWeave. He also spent substantial time comparing Nvidia vs AMD vs Google, discussing eToro’s earnings, and explaining why he remains bullish on AI infrastructure and memory names despite rate and margin risks.

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Detailed summary

This was a fast-moving midday market monitor stream, not a single-asset pitch. The speaker opened with the market reaction to hotter CPI: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were down, with AI and tech names especially weak. He said the inflation print, combined with a stronger-than-expected jobs market, points the Fed more toward hikes than cuts in the near term, which is bad for debt-heavy names. The main new action item was his starter position in CoreWeave. He said he bought a small position after the stock sold off more than 8% and would add aggressively if it falls below $100, possibly into the 80s or 70s. His thesis is that AI demand is overwhelming supply, customers can pass through higher costs, CoreWeave has a huge backlog, and Nvidia is effectively backstopping part of the business through a $6.3 billion customer-payment support structure. …

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Main takeaways

  1. Hot CPI and a strong jobs backdrop were interpreted as a short-term headwind for rate-sensitive and debt-heavy equities.
  2. CoreWeave was the speaker’s main new position: small starter size now, with plans to add lower if weakness persists.
  3. The speaker remains structurally bullish on AI infrastructure, especially neoclouds and memory, because demand is still outpacing supply.
  4. He argued Nvidia still looks superior to AMD and Google on growth, margins, and valuation, despite market arguments about competition.
  5. eToro’s headline results were framed as good but complicated by crypto weakness and weak April activity.
  6. The stream mixed market commentary, portfolio updates, and promotional content, with the most actionable idea being the CoreWeave entry.
  7. The tone was high conviction, but several arguments relied on bold extrapolation from current AI demand into very large future outcomes.

Market read by horizon

Short term

Near term, hot inflation data keeps pressure on long-duration tech and debt-financed AI names, so the setup is still volatile rather than cleanly bullish. The immediate opportunity is selectively buying weakness in names with real demand leverage, but only if they can absorb rate pressure and earnings risk.

  • CPI came in hotter than expected, and the speaker sees that as a near-term risk for rate-sensitive growth names.
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  • AI and tech sold off hard intraday, with Nasdaq 100 weakness, CoreWeave down sharply, and several high-beta names under pressure.
  • He bought only a teaser position in CoreWeave after the selloff and said he would size up if it drops below $100, possibly into the 80s or 70s.
Mid term

Over the next few months, the speaker expects AI infrastructure demand to keep outrunning supply, which should favor Nvidia, CoreWeave, Nebius, and memory suppliers if execution holds. The main invalidation would be slower demand growth, tighter financing conditions, or signs that pricing power is not enough to offset higher rates and competition.

  • Over the next several weeks or months, his base case is that AI infrastructure demand continues to exceed supply, supporting CoreWeave, Nebius, Nvidia, and memory suppliers.
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  • He thinks higher rates may pressure debt-heavy AI infrastructure names in the interim, but that customer demand and pricing power can offset some of the financing burden.
  • He expects CoreWeave to remain a high-volatility but potentially attractive relative-value trade versus Nebius because of cheaper valuation and stronger profitability metrics.
Long term

Structurally, he is betting that AI buildout becomes a multi-year capital cycle where compute, memory, and data-center infrastructure absorb enormous spending. In that regime, the best-positioned infrastructure vendors and platform owners keep compounding even after the current volatility fades, but the concentration and valuation risks remain real.

  • The speaker’s structural thesis is that AI buildout is still early and will require enormous ongoing investment in compute, memory, networking, and data-center capacity.
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  • He sees Nvidia as a long-duration winner because it combines market leadership, high margins, and a widening ecosystem across GPU, CPU, networking, and related infrastructure.
  • He believes neoclouds like CoreWeave and Nebius may be major long-term beneficiaries, but only if they can finance growth and maintain pricing power as the buildout matures.
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Key claims (10)

BEARISH Fed policy

Hot CPI combined with a strong jobs report implies the Fed’s dual mandate is pointing more toward hikes than cuts in the near term.

He explicitly tied the inflation print and employment strength to a more hawkish policy interpretation.

BULLISH AI infrastructure CoreWeave

CoreWeave is a buy on weakness because AI demand is overwhelming supply and pricing power can offset higher financing costs.

This was his core new position thesis, based on demand strength, backlog, and pass-through pricing.

BULLISH position sizing CoreWeave

He would increase the CoreWeave position aggressively if the stock drops below $100, potentially into the 80s or 70s.

This was stated as a direct sizing plan and price-triggered accumulation level.

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Assets discussed (28)

S&P 500 — SPY
BEARISH index

Speaker said the S&P was down nearly 1% amid a tech selloff after hot CPI.

Nasdaq 100 — QQQ
BEARISH index

He said the Nasdaq 100 / QQQ was down over 2% and tech names were leading the selloff.

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Speakers

SPEAKER Tanner GUEST Steve GUEST Yoni

Interview (12 Q&A)

Nebius vs CoreWeave

Is Nebius doing better in certain areas like building their own racks and getting larger prepayments?

The speaker acknowledges that Nebius is an unbelievable business and remains by far their largest Neocloud position. Nebius gets greater upfront payments, signs shorter-term deals to capture rising GPU prices, and builds their own racks. But CoreWeave is being disrespected despite being the largest NeoCloud right now with strong Nvidia backing.

CoreWeave vs Nebius

Why not just buy more Nebius instead of CoreWeave?

The speaker says it's purely based on valuations — CoreWeave is way sold off at this point, making it a better relative value.

coreweave trade

Why is Coreweave the better buy than Nebius right now?

The guest says he is buying Coreweave because he thinks it is technically the best at setting up data centers and is first place among major cloud names. He also argues Coreweave is more sold off than Nebius and has better profitability, even if both are attractive.

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Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • The CoreWeave thesis leans heavily on extrapolating current AI demand and assumes pricing power will persist even if supply catches up.
  • The claim that CoreWeave is 'technically first place' among cloud/data-center operators is asserted aggressively without clear comparative evidence.
  • The Nvidia backstop/circular-investing framing is presented in a very favorable way and may understate balance-sheet, customer-concentration, or demand-cycle risks.
  • The argument that Nvidia is clearly superior to AMD on all relevant metrics ignores that market share, product cycles, and valuation can shift quickly.
  • The Google vs Nvidia comparison is somewhat apples-to-oranges at points because the speaker switches among revenue, margins, capex, and growth without a single consistent valuation framework.
  • The assumption that higher AI demand will allow all costs to be passed through may be too optimistic if enterprise budgets tighten or competition increases.

Topics

CPI inflationFed ratesCoreWeaveNebiusNvidiaAMDGoogleeToro earningsMicron memoryAI infrastructure

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