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Inflation, carburants, consommation ... Entretien avec Dominique Schelcher (Coopérative U)

Channel: BFMTV Published: 2026-05-12 14:45
BFMTV

Dominique Schelcher of Coopérative U says the immediate pressure point is fuel: consumers are highly price-sensitive, fuel promotions are already near cost, and further cuts are hard because U is already at the limit. He sees no immediate large pass-through into grocery shelves, but flags possible later effects from plastics, raffiners, and logistics if the geopolitical shock persists.

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Detailed summary

This BFMTV interview centers on Dominique Schelcher, who explains how the Iran-related geopolitical shock is filtering into French consumer behavior and retail pricing. On fuel, he says U’s stations sell at near-cost all the time, cannot easily discount further for the Ascension weekend, and are forced to match competitors because consumers now actively search for the cheapest fuel every day. He notes that Total can offer deeper discounts because it controls production, refining, and distribution, while U relies on a shared purchasing arrangement with Leclerc and cannot move the market by itself. Schelcher says the Brent price is highly uncertain and depends on daily moves in Rotterdam-linked refined product pricing, Trump-related headlines, and any military escalation. …

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Main takeaways

  1. Fuel is the immediate pain point; grocery shelf inflation is not yet broad-based.
  2. Consumers are already adapting through fewer trips, carpooling, and tighter baskets.
  3. U is effectively at its fuel-discount limit and cannot keep cutting prices much further.
  4. The biggest possible future pass-through is from refined products, plastics, and packaging, not today’s shelves.
  5. A blanket reopening of supplier negotiations would likely feed directly into consumer prices.
  6. Private-label and first-price products are gaining share as households protect budgets.

Market read by horizon

Short term

Near term, fuel remains the cleanest tradeable pressure point: pump prices are still headline-sensitive and U says it has little room to cut more. Store prices look comparatively stable for now, so the actionable risk is a fuel spike rather than a broad basket repricing.

  • Fuel pricing is the near-term battleground: U says it is already near cost and cannot meaningfully add more discounting for the Ascension weekend.
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  • Watch Brent and refined-product pricing in Rotterdam for the next leg of fuel moves; Schelcher says that is what drives daily retail pricing.
  • Immediate risks are headline-driven spikes from geopolitics or energy shocks; immediate relief would come if escalation eases and shipping/production normalizes.
Mid term

Over the next few weeks to months, the base case is selective rather than universal inflation pass-through: fuel and packaging can bleed into shelves with a lag if the shock persists. Confirmation would come from more supplier requests, thinner promotions, and visible increases in oil, dairy, or packaged goods.

  • Over the next several weeks and months, the key question is whether consumption weakness and lower fuel demand continue to cap inflation pass-through.
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  • He expects any store-price impacts to appear selectively and case by case rather than as a universal wave of repricing.
  • If the conflict persists into late summer, packaging and input-cost pressures could show up by back-to-school, especially in products dependent on plastic.
Long term

Structurally, the interview points to a more defensive French consumer and a retail system where inflation hits in waves, not all at once. Private label, frugality, and logistics-sensitive costs remain the enduring regime, while energy remains the main upstream inflation engine.

  • The interview implies a durable change in French household behavior: consumers are more price-sensitive, shop more strategically, and accept trade-offs across categories.
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  • Private label appears to be strengthening structurally as a value refuge, which may keep share gains even after the current shock fades.
  • The episode reinforces that retail inflation transmission is now slower and more segmented because inventory buffers, logistics lags, and category-by-category pricing dilute the shock.
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Key claims (7)

BULLISH consumer inflation carburant

U sells fuel at near-cost almost all the time and has no room to lower prices much further for the Ascension weekend.

He says fuel is almost always sold at cost and that U cannot do more than it already does.

BULLISH household spending carburant

Consumers now actively search daily for the cheapest fuel, forcing retailers into intense price competition.

He says consumers look for the cheapest fuel every day and stations that are not in that range are eliminated.

BULLISH energy market structure Total

Total can discount fuel more aggressively because it controls the full chain from production to distribution.

He contrasts Total’s integrated model with U’s weaker margin position.

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Assets discussed (8)

carburant
BULLISH commodity

He says fuel prices are high and highly volatile, with little room for further discounting at U stations.

Brent
BULLISH commodity

He cites Brent at about 108 dollars and says the market remains uncertain and vulnerable to geopolitical escalation.

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Speakers

GUEST Dominique Schelcher HOST Amélie Rosy HOST Lisa Adeph

Interview (22 Q&A)

carburant

Y aura-t-il des promotions sur le carburant chez U pour le pont de l’Ascension ?

Dominique Schellcher explique que le carburant est déjà vendu à prix quasiment coûtant et qu’il ne gagne presque rien dessus. Il dit qu’avec les fortes fluctuations et la concurrence, U est au plus juste et ne peut pas faire d’effort supplémentaire pour l’instant.

prix Total

Le fait que Total puisse bloquer ou baisser davantage ses prix vous agace-t-il ?

Il dit que c’est agaçant, mais que Total peut le faire parce qu’il maîtrise toute la chaîne, de la production à la distribution. Selon lui, Total joue son rôle pour attirer les clients et cela aide les Français.

marges

Pourquoi les grandes enseignes de carburant ne baissent-elles pas davantage leurs prix ?

Dominique Schellcher dit qu’il n’y a pas de marge cachée ou excessive dans la grande distribution sur le carburant. Il ajoute que lui et Leclerc ont essayé d’obtenir de meilleurs prix d’achat, sans parvenir à faire bouger les lignes.

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Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • Schelcher repeatedly says there is no broad inflation pass-through yet, but he also acknowledges several likely future pressure points; the timing and magnitude are left vague.
  • He argues no mass reopening of negotiations is justified, yet says case-by-case increases are possible; the boundary between the two is not clearly defined.
  • He suggests Total’s behavior is justified because it controls the chain, but also implies its deep discounts are strategically aggressive; the line between competition and margin advantage is blurry.
  • His rejection of UFC-Que Choisir’s 4-5% shelf-inflation warning is based on current observations, but he gives limited evidence beyond his network and the mediator’s report.
  • The claim that consumers can absorb up to 40% of a price rise feels more like an industry rule-of-thumb than a firmly evidenced fact.

Topics

fuel pricesconsumer purchasing powerinflation passthroughprivate labelretail pricing negotiationsRotterdam fuel marketgeopolitical shockconsumer behaviorsummer travelpackaging costs

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