Gareth Soloway argues the market is still constructive as long as S&P support around 6790 holds, with oil easing, yields not spiking, and the labor data staying decent. He is bullish on Bitcoin’s breakout setup, remains constructive on Microsoft/Meta/Nvidia unless their trend lines break, and sees silver as especially vulnerable after a sharp selloff.
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This is a solo market wrap from Gareth Soloway of Verified Investing. He opens by framing the session as a technical-analysis-driven plan and emphasizes that the S&P 500 held a major support level near 6790 yesterday, which he treats as the key line to watch. He says the market is floating higher today rather than staging a big rally, and that the setup improves if price can reclaim recent highs and push S&P futures toward roughly 6900. He also notes that the ADP report came in at 63,000 jobs, slightly above expectations, which he interprets as evidence that the labor market is still okay. He repeatedly stresses that the market’s resilience is being helped by falling oil prices, which he ties to U.S. efforts to protect ships through the Strait of Hormuz, and by a modestly lower inflation impulse. …
Tactically, the tape is still buyable while S&P support near 6790 holds and oil/yields stay contained; the main near-term danger is a failed retest that turns yesterday’s hold into a real breakdown. Bitcoin is the cleanest upside momentum setup, while silver and post-earnings Broadcom are the sharper event risks.
Over the next several weeks, the market likely grinds higher unless support levels across the S&P and megacap charts start failing together. If those lines break, he expects a synchronized downside move across indices, tech leaders, and some commodities.
The durable thesis is that price structure and probability management matter more than news narratives, and that institutional flows dominate short-term outcomes. He also leaves open a longer-running risk that AI capex enthusiasm eventually becomes a macro burden if spending growth rolls over.
The S&P 500 held major technical support near 6790 yesterday, which is bullish for now.
He says the level held and that the market can float higher as long as it remains intact.
A daily close below 6790 would be the key breakdown signal for the S&P.
He explicitly says a close below is what converts the level from support into a real breakdown signal.
Oil weakness is helping the market by lowering inflation expectations, aided by U.S. efforts to protect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
He directly links lower oil to lower inflation expectations and market support.
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