Marc Touati argues that French corporate bankruptcies are hitting record highs, even after adjusting for micro-businesses, and interprets this as evidence of an anti-business policy mix that is worsening France’s growth outlook.
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In this short commentary, Marc Touati opens with a Banque de France figure showing 6,938 business failures over the last 12 months, describing it as a new historical record. He says the total is 9.4% above the April 2015 peak and 27.1% higher than in 2017, which he uses to reject the idea that France has had a true 'supply-side' policy. He then addresses the common counterargument that France has also seen many business creations, citing roughly 1.165 million business formations in 2025 and an estimated 7 million companies in total. Touati argues that this headline number is misleading because 96% of French firms are micro-enterprises with zero or one employee, so he insists the relevant measure is bankruptcies excluding micro-enterprises. …
Near term, the risk is continued negative prints on French bankruptcy and business-survey data, which could keep pressure on domestic cyclicals, small caps, and credit-sensitive names.
Over the next few months, the base case in the transcript is that French corporate distress stays elevated unless failures flatten and survey data stop worsening. The setup would improve only if the bankruptcy trend clearly decelerates, especially outside micro-enterprises.
The long-run message is that France may be entering a lower-dynamism regime where regulation and taxation suppress business formation quality and raise failure rates. If that persists, the structural risk is weaker investment, employment, and productivity growth.
The Banque de France reports 6,938 business failures over the last 12 months, a new historical record.
Opening statistic used as the anchor of the argument.
The current failure level is 9.4% above the April 2015 peak and 27.1% above 2017, contradicting a true supply-side policy story.
He uses the comparison to argue policy has not improved business conditions.
Although France saw about 1.165 million business creations in 2025, that figure is misleading because 96% are micro-enterprises with zero or one employee.
He preempts the counterargument that high business formation offsets bankruptcies.
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