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Why Copper Could Be Heading to a Price No One Is Ready For | Craig Parry - Vizla

Channel: The Deep Dive Published: 2026-05-15 08:37
The Deep Dive

Craig Parry argues copper is in a structural supply crunch and could reach $20–$30/lb over the next few years, driven by mine depletion, permitting delays, and rising demand from AI/data centers and electrification. He uses Vizsla Copper’s Palmer project and other holdings to illustrate the kind of high-grade assets he thinks the market is still underpricing, while also discussing Skeena Gold & Silver’s development progress and the resource-sector rotation he believes is underway.

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Detailed summary

This interview is centered on Craig Parry’s bullish thesis on copper, with side discussion of silver, gold, Skeena Gold & Silver, and Vizsla Copper’s project pipeline. Parry says copper has already moved from around $4/lb to the mid-$6s because of supply losses from aging mines, disruptions at major operations, and geopolitical/policy shocks such as Panama. He argues the market has not fully appreciated the next leg of the squeeze, citing tighter processing conditions, sulfur-related issues, permitting delays in places like British Columbia, and a lack of exploration and capital investment. His core claim is that even with rising prices, supply cannot respond quickly enough, so he still expects copper to eventually trade at $20–$30/lb. The conversation then shifts to capital markets and asset-level positioning. …

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Main takeaways

  1. Copper supply is portrayed as structurally constrained by mine depletion, outages, and slow permitting.
  2. Parry maintains a long-standing $20–$30/lb copper target despite recent price strength.
  3. He sees AI/data-center buildout as a major new copper demand driver.
  4. He argues copper equities still lag the metal and remain cheap versus fundamentals.
  5. Vizsla Copper’s Palmer project is presented as a high-grade, high-catalyst Alaska asset.
  6. Skeena Gold & Silver is described as well-funded and nearing major development milestones.
  7. He expects more generalist capital and M&A to flow into resources.
  8. The interview ends with a discussion of a tragedy at Visa Silver’s site and support for affected families.

Market read by horizon

Short term

Tactically, copper remains momentum-supported and could stay bid if tight supply headlines continue; junior copper names with visible drilling catalysts may outperform if news flow is positive. The main short-term risk is that the equity response remains lagged or volatile despite the metal’s strength.

  • Near-term catalyst is Vizsla Copper drilling at Palmer, with rigs slated to turn around June 7 and more assay/news flow expected.
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  • Parry highlights a very tight copper market, with current pricing already near historic highs and vulnerable to further upside if processing/sulfur constraints worsen.
  • He says assays at Poplar/Woodjam are still pending, so near-term sentiment may hinge on lab turnaround and drill results.
Mid term

Over the next few months, the base case is continued upward pressure on copper as mine disruptions, slow permitting, and limited new supply keep the market tight. The setup improves if drill results, assay releases, and development progress confirm that quality projects are still scarce and financing remains available.

  • Over the next several weeks to months, Parry’s base case is continued copper strength as supply disruptions and slow project development prevent a meaningful response.
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  • He expects the market to gradually recognize that permitting and exploration delays make new copper supply slow to arrive, supporting higher prices and better sentiment toward quality juniors.
  • For Vizsla Copper, confirmation would come from ongoing drilling success, growing resources, and additional results that extend Palmer and other projects.
Long term

Structurally, the interview argues copper has entered a multi-year scarcity regime where electrification and data-center demand collide with an unable-to-scale supply system. If that regime persists, the long-run winners are high-grade, lower-footprint deposits and the companies that can advance them through permitting and construction.

  • Structurally, Parry sees copper entering a prolonged price-discovery regime caused by underinvestment, lower discovery grades, and persistent permitting friction.
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  • He believes the world needs more copper for electrification and AI infrastructure, but the mining system cannot scale fast enough to meet that demand without much higher prices.
  • The long-term implication is that high-grade, manageable, lower-footprint deposits become more valuable than giant, capital-intensive porphyry projects.
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Key claims (8)

BULLISH supply deficit Copper

Copper could eventually trade at $20–$30 per pound.

Parry repeatedly reaffirms this long-standing forecast as his base view.

BULLISH supply deficit Copper

Aging mines, outages, and project shutdowns have already removed about 5% of global copper supply.

He links price strength to mine disruptions such as Grasberg, Cobre Panama, and others.

BULLISH demand growth Copper

Copper demand could rise by about 30% over the next seven years.

He cites expected demand growth as another leg of the supply-demand imbalance.

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Assets discussed (10)

Copper
BULLISH commodity

Parry expects copper to rise sharply due to supply constraints and strong demand; he reiterates a $20–$30/lb target.

Silver
BULLISH commodity

Mentioned as one of the metals he has been bullish on and associated with broader metals strength.

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Speakers

HOST Steve GUEST Craig Parry

Interview (6 Q&A)

commodities market outlook

What's your read on the commodities markets right now? What's going through your head given how much prices have moved up?

Craig is extremely bullish on copper, still targeting $20-30 per pound. He notes that despite geopolitical turmoil and near-recession conditions, copper held near all-time highs, signaling extreme tightness. He points to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupting sulfur/sulfuric acid supply essential for copper processing, aging mines like Grasberg running into production challenges, and the removal of ~5% of global supply (Cobre Panama, etc.) driving the price from $4 to ~$6. He sees 30% extra demand coming over 7 years with no supply response possible due to years of underinvestment in exploration and lengthening permitting timelines (e.g., staking to boots-on-the-ground in BC went from one week to one year).

core sample

What are we looking at in that piece of core you showed? Explain to me what that rock is.

Craig shows a core sample from their Palmer project — 44 meters at 8.2% copper equivalent. He advises viewers to invest in companies pulling core like that out of the ground, as copper prices go parabolic and equities remain cheap.

core sample

What does the rock sample show, and how high is the copper grade?

The guest says the piece is core from drill hole CMR 23172 on the Palmer project. He explains that the box contains 44 meters at 8.2% copper equivalent, with the actual rock around 11% copper in that piece, describing it as high-grade VMS-style mineralization.

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Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • The $20–$30/lb copper call is highly aggressive and not well supported with explicit demand/supply modeling in the interview.
  • Several arguments rely on broad macro statements and anecdotes rather than quantified forecast assumptions.
  • Some supply constraints cited are real, but the jump from current tightness to a multi-decade-high copper price is not rigorously bridged.
  • The claim that there is effectively no meaningful supply response may understate the potential for new projects, recycling, substitution, or demand destruction over time.

Topics

copper supply deficitAI/data center demandpermitting delaysmine depletionVizsla CopperPalmer projectSkeena Gold & Silverresource-sector M&Ageneralist capital rotationVisa Silver tragedy

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