Dale Pinkert argues the bond market has entered a dangerous breakdown, with global yields surging, TLT looking vulnerable, and the dollar likely to rally further. He expects near-term pressure on gold, silver, and most risk assets, while seeing natural gas as one of the few relatively attractive long setups.
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In this conversation with Maggie Lake, Dale Pinkert frames the dominant market story as a global bond selloff that is spilling into currencies, metals, and equities. He says the TLT bond ETF looks like a continuation breakdown, global government bond yields are making new highs, and the 10-year Treasury could challenge 5% or even continue higher. He repeatedly emphasizes the speed and size of the recent bond gap as a sign of stress or even an emergency-type market condition. He links that bond pressure to a stronger U.S. dollar, saying the dollar has turned and targeting roughly 103-104 on the DXY. He argues that a stronger dollar tends to pressure other assets by tightening liquidity. On metals, he thinks gold and silver should weaken further, with silver looking especially vulnerable and gold likely to retreat toward lower support levels. …
Immediate setup is defensive: bonds look fragile, the dollar looks like it has turned up, and metals plus crowded momentum names may face further pressure before any stabilization. Tactical rallies in gold/silver or weak risk assets look like fade opportunities until yields show a real reversal.
Over the next few weeks, the base case is continued cross-asset volatility with the dollar and yields dictating direction. Stocks may still grind higher in a late-cycle melt-up, but only if they can absorb the rate shock; otherwise a broader pullback in semis and other leaders becomes the cleaner path.
Structurally, the discussion points to a late-stage liquidity regime where bond-market instability and policy responses matter more than single-asset narratives. If yield-curve control or similar intervention becomes necessary, it would mark a major change in how FX, metals, and risk assets trade over time.
The bond market is signaling stress and may be in an emergency-type move.
He points to a huge gap, new lows, and illiquidity as signs that the bond market is not functioning normally.
TLT has broken down from a bear flag / continuation pattern and could fall much further.
He repeatedly references the measured move and says he does not want to get long bonds.
The 10-year Treasury yield could challenge 5% and keep rising.
He cites a continuation formation and says 5% is a plausible next target or test.
Is the next Fed move a hike?
Dale doesn't directly answer whether the next move is a hike. Instead he focuses on the bond market breakdown, the 10-year yield potentially heading to 5%, and the possibility of yield curve control being implemented.
What's the timeline for decline in TLT?
Dale says he still doesn't see a reason to get long. His target from the small bear flag is 82, and if measuring a larger descending triangle from 100, the measured move takes it to 72-64. He says he would need at minimum a reversal week to say a low might be in.
Is the speed of this yield turn worrying?
Dale says the huge gap on the chart signals an emergency to him, especially after being near recent levels. He notes such a big gap at new lows is unusual and suggests concern about the Fed not functioning properly.
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